The Disciplined Investor · Oct 18, 2026 · 57m · 49m saved
With Daniel Crosby, Chief Behavioral Officer at Orion, psychologist and author of The Behavioral Investor and The Laws of Wealth
Earning power and behavior with money are the two best predictors of how much wealth a person ends up with, Daniel Crosby, chief behavioral officer at Orion, told Andrew Horowitz on The Disciplined Investor.
Most investors spend their worry on the market, the Fed and geopolitics. Daniel's view is that the biggest threat to long-term returns is the investor's own behavior, which is good news, because behavior can be controlled and the rest cannot.
"So much of what people spend their time worrying about is unknowable and uncontrollable." — Daniel Crosby
Daniel, a psychologist, has written two books on how investors behave, The Behavioral Investor and The Laws of Wealth.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 57 minutes of audio, 8 minutes of reading.
Here are the 7 lessons that matter.
Key Takeaways
No policymaker can claim a win on September's inflation data, Andrew says, after a hotter-than-expected producer price report
Investors who worked with Daniel in Canada held about 80% of their wealth in Canadian stocks
The best predictors of wealth are earning power and behavior, not markets or the Fed
Financial TV is built to entertain, and fear and greed are what sell
Four meta-biases explain most investor mistakes: ego, emotion, attention and conservatism
Investors overweight loud, unlikely risks and ignore costs such as mutual-fund expenses
A family photo or a personal name on an account makes investors 10 times less likely to sell in a down market
1. Sticky Prices, Narrow Market
Andrew Horowitz, a portfolio manager who hosts The Disciplined Investor, opened with the week's news before bringing Daniel on. September consumer prices rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, and a hotter-than-expected producer price report undercut hopes that the Fed was close to cutting rates.
Andrew Horowitz says the September inflation data gave policymakers nothing to celebrate
"There is no victory lap that can be taken by any politician or anybody in the Treasury or anybody in the Fed on this print. There's no way." — Andrew Horowitz
On earnings, Morgan Stanley had a strong quarter, with trading and wealth management both healthy. Bank of America missed revenue expectations and took a $1.2 billion anti-money-laundering settlement. ASML gave a strong outlook. Andrew also sees Microsoft, Amazon and Google moving toward in-house AI chips, such as Microsoft's Maia, to cut electricity costs and depend less on outside suppliers, and expects that cost story to dominate the next two weeks of tech earnings.
Andrew Horowitz sees weak breadth under the S&P 500's strength
"The concept of what's going on with the S&P 500 stocks — well, a lot of times really it's just 25 stocks leading the way or dropping. Nobody really talks about the other 475." — Andrew Horowitz
He and James Stack covered the same point on the previous week's show.
