In the Money with Amber Kanwar · Oct 1, 2026 · 1h 5m · 46m saved
With Jeff Olin, President and CEO of Vision Capital
Over the last 18 months, 22 real estate companies have agreed to takeovers at an average premium of 40%, Jeff Olin said, and private buyers still hold hundreds of billions of dollars they need to spend on property.
Rising interest rates have pushed many investors out of real estate stocks. Olin's long-short fund went the other way: it raised its net long exposure this year, and the host noted it is up 6% over a year in which the index fell 7%.
"So, for the last 40 years, we've never found a period of time where we couldn't buy real estate cheaper in the stock market than the property market." — Jeff Olin
Olin, President and CEO of Vision Capital, co-founded the real estate fund 20 years ago after a career in investment banking and direct real estate, and says 25 of its holdings have been taken over in 18 years. In this interview on In the Money with Amber Kanwar he answers listener questions on more than a dozen Canadian and US real estate stocks.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 1 hour 5 minutes of audio, 19 minutes of reading.
Here are the 19 insights that matter.
Key Takeaways
Supply and demand matter more than interest rates for real estate returns
US REITs carry 35% leverage, against 67% for a typical private buyer
22 real estate takeovers in 18 months came at an average premium of 40%
Grocery-anchored shopping centers are getting 15–25% rent increases on renewal
The H&R and Go Residential deal is a rare merger in which both sides fell in value
Allied Properties reported 85% occupancy when the real figure was around 82%, Olin said
He would eliminate the distribution entirely
Mainstreet Equity turned about $10 million of net equity into a $2 billion company
AI will make commercial real estate brokers more productive, not replace them
Chartwell is his top pick, at a discount to the US peers that trade at large premiums
He values Brookdale at $19 a share and Csquare at $25
1. Supply Beats Rates
Amber Kanwar opened by asking whether rising interest rates make real estate "dead money." Olin said no.
Supply and demand outrank interest rates as a driver of real estate returns
"Interest rates are important. They are always exceeded in importance — whether the rates are going up or down — by supply and demand, like any business, like any industry." — Jeff Olin
He cited research shown on CNBC by a strategist he did not name: the correlation between the 10-year Treasury yield and REIT prices was negligible, REITs have historically done best when the 10-year sat between 4% and 5%, and the bigger factor was low volatility in rates rather than their direction. A 10-year yield in that range usually means a strong economy and solid job growth, which is demand for property.
The last three weeks of rate volatility have hurt REITs, he said, but their balance sheets are strong.
"But US REITs have the best balance sheets they've ever had." — Jeff Olin
US REITs average 35% leverage, against the 67% that pension funds, private equity funds and family offices typically use to buy property privately
They carry interest coverage of 4.5 times, 90% fixed-rate debt and an average debt term of more than six years
From April to June 2022, when rates rose quickly, government bonds, corporate bonds, REITs, tech stocks and financials all fell 18% to 20%
In Canada, he said, leverage is a little higher but valuations are better. He does not forecast rates, but offered a guess.
"If you force me to guess I think 5%, rates are going to be higher for longer and I think the market is prepared for that." — Jeff Olin
