20VC · Oct 31, 2026 · 1h 17m · 69m saved
With David Tisch, Managing Partner at BoxGroup
Photo via fortune.com
David Tisch, managing partner of BoxGroup, told Harry Stebbings on 20VC that the fastest-growing startups now give up 3% to 8% of the company in each Series B, C and D, against the 12% to 20% those rounds used to cost. That shrinking dilution is why he thinks seed investors who fight for big ownership stakes are fighting the wrong battle.
Most concentrated seed funds tell founders and investors they win nearly every deal they chase. David said the real number is far lower.
"Every concentrated manager will say that we win 90% of the deals we want to win. And I think that's total BS. I think it's like 20%." — David Tisch
David has spent 17 years in early-stage investing, and BoxGroup has built its approach on small stakes across many companies rather than large stakes in a few. It now runs two $275 million funds.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 77 minutes of audio, 8 minutes of reading.
Here are the 9 arguments that matter.
Key Takeaways
Later rounds now dilute fast-growing startups 3–8%, not 12–20%, which makes seed ownership matter less
David puts concentrated seed funds' real win rate near 20%, not the 90% they claim
To land 30 companies, he thinks they offer terms to 120 to 150
David admits he was wrong about BoxGroup's own low-ownership model: he did not see outcomes getting bigger
The lean startup "was a total fake": any company on the venture path ends up needing real capital
Rogo was passed on by 39 of 40 Series A leads before Thrive led the round
The right to invest in later rounds is earned through reputation, not written into documents
Venture is consolidating, and David thinks the best firms will keep compounding
1. This Is Not 2021
David opened by rejecting the comparison to 2021. That bubble had specific macro causes. Today's market is "funky, frothy, maybe insane," but in his view it is its own condition, not a replay.
For an early-stage investor, he said, the macro matters less than whether the specific company is great. The market now turns in two- to three-month "mini cycles," set off by model releases, M&A and revenue growth at vertical AI companies, rather than in longer macro waves.
BoxGroup runs two $275 million vehicles. One is a core seed fund. The other is a follow-on fund that writes $5 million to $30 million "lean-in" checks, mostly back into BoxGroup's own portfolio.
