The Disciplined Investor · Sep 27, 2026 · 1h 9m · 51m saved
With Frank Curzio, Founder and President of Curzio Research and host of Wall Street Unplugged
Bank of America expects 33% earnings growth year over year, Frank Curzio said, against the 8.5% a year the market usually delivers. Its S&P 500 target sits only 1% above where the index trades now.
Most investors read that forecast as a reason to stay fully invested. Curzio, who said he is usually the optimist on this show, read it as growth that is already in the price, and his firm has sold a lot of stocks over the past two months.
"It's not in your favor. It's a very dangerous market."
Frank Curzio, founder and president of Curzio Research, on The Disciplined Investor. He has covered stocks for 30 years, hosts the Wall Street Unplugged podcast, and runs Curzio One, a membership whose members invest in private deals alongside him on the same terms.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 69 minutes of audio, 18 minutes of reading.
Here are the 12 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
The 10-year Treasury yield is the risk investors are underestimating
Mortgage rates above 7% have frozen the housing market, he said
Bank of America's forecast of 33% earnings growth is already priced in, by his reading of its 1% S&P 500 target
Diesel is up 40% in a month, and he expects companies to cut their guidance because of it
He expects five Fed rate hikes before the midterm elections
Market odds of an October hike have risen to about 70% from about 20%
AI spending still pays: every dollar the hyperscalers spend brings in over $3, he said
Gold is the worst investment in the world when rates are rising, because it pays nothing
Uranium and mining stocks are for trading, not for holding forever
Texas has to double its power capacity in four years, and transmission lines take five years to build
Pricing power decides the winners: Apple, Coca-Cola and Walmart have it, and Disney, Nike and Lululemon do not, he said
1. The Host on Bessent's Flinch
Before the guest came on, the host opened with his own view of the week in bonds.
The host said the Treasury's intervention made rates worse
He said the 10-year Treasury yield broke through 5% to about 5.20%, the 30-year yield is back at its level of 2003 or 2004, and 30-year mortgage rates are above 7%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's move to buy more long-term bonds, a few billion dollars at a time, was too small to work and signaled that officials are worried, the host said.
"He did the opposite. He showed his hand." — the host
He compared it to the 2008–2009 ban on short selling financial stocks, which he said convinced investors the government saw something worse than they did, and to telling people the ATMs are shutting down.
"And unfortunately, they flinched and it's causing more of a problem." — the host
The host criticized the war with Iran
Official claims that the war with Iran is ending, and that the US controls the Strait of Hormuz, are not believable, he said, and he compared the case for the war to the weapons-of-mass-destruction case for the Iraq war under George W. Bush. He said the war is now hurting household budgets and called for it to end so attention can return to earnings and innovation.
