Photo via freightwaves.com
Freight data usually runs about six months ahead of the government's own figures, and Craig Fuller, founder and CEO of FreightWaves, told Adam Taggart on Thoughtful Money that it shows no sign the AI data-center boom is slowing.
Much of the market is asking whether AI spending is a bubble close to deflating. Craig's freight numbers show the strongest US industrial economy in perhaps a decade instead, even as the volume of consumer goods moving through the country falls.
"The freight data is usually six months before the broader government data... there's nothing in the data that suggests that this party is not going to continue."
Craig built FreightWaves to measure the physical volume of goods moving through the US rather than the dollars spent on them, which strips out the inflation that can make consumer data look stronger than it is.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 1 hour 27 minutes of audio, 8 minutes of reading.
Here are the 7 calls that matter.
Thoughtful Money · Oct 27, 2026 · 1h 27m · 79m saved
With Craig Fuller, Founder and CEO of FreightWaves
Key Takeaways
Freight data shows no sign of an AI capex slowdown, and it usually leads government data by about six months
The US industrial economy is the strongest in perhaps a decade, driven by AI data centers, cheaper natural gas and defense spending
GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are cutting food and beverage freight, one of the sharpest-declining categories
Craig has lost 50 pounds in three years on one himself
As much as 20% of US freight ties indirectly to housing, which Craig calls "just a dog right now"
Railroads carry what data centers need, which Craig says makes them an AI investment that doesn't depend on AI
The diesel squeeze comes from Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, not from the Strait of Hormuz
1. A Lukewarm, Split Economy
Craig called himself "lukewarm" this time, after earlier appearances on Thoughtful Money that swung from depressed to optimistic. FreightWaves' data shows an economy split in two: manufacturing activity is running hot while consumer goods consumption slows.
Craig sees the strongest industrial economy in perhaps a decade, alongside slowing consumer demand
"I'd say this is the strongest industrial economy that we have seen in perhaps a decade." — Craig Fuller
Consumer data measured in dollars can look more resilient than it is, because inflation and same-store sales lift the figures. Freight counts the goods themselves.
Freight volume is an honest measure because nobody ships goods without real demand, Craig said
"When we look at freight data, people only move product when there is demand to actually drive it. They don't move it for any type of manipulation. They don't bunker it or store it." — Craig Fuller
