Photo via riaadvisors.com
Anthropic's widely reported $80 billion loss was a change in the fair value of its convertible notes, not an operating loss, said Lance Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist at RIA Advisors, on Thoughtful Money.
Headlines reported the $80 billion as a loss. Lance said Anthropic's operating loss actually improved from the year before, and the company is close to an operating profit three years after its founding.
"The net loss, this $80 billion that everybody was so focused on, was just the change in the fair value of convertible notes and other instruments. This wasn't an operating [loss]."
Lance manages client money at RIA Advisors and trades on these views. The firm rotated from growth into value stocks two weeks before the interview, took profits on long Treasury bonds, and sold all of its energy stocks on the day of recording.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 83 minutes of audio, 10 minutes of reading.
Here are the 9 calls that matter.
Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® · Oct 24, 2026 · 1h 23m · 73m saved
With Lance Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist at RIA Advisors
Key Takeaways
Bollinger Bands around the S&P 500 have compressed tightly, a setup that historically comes before a big move in one direction
Lance said an oversold market with negative sentiment usually breaks upward
Breadth readings at an extreme are contrarian signals, not continuation signals
Anthropic's $80B loss was a convertible-note markdown, while its revenue reached about $16B in 3 years
AI compute demand still outstrips supply, with no weakness at the margin in compute or freight volumes
The S&P 500 has fallen to 19x earnings because earnings rose while prices went sideways
On 12–15% earnings growth next year, flat prices would bring that to 15–16x
The 10-year Treasury yield should never have reached 5.3–5.4%, and RIA Advisors is taking profits on long bonds
RIA Advisors sold its entire energy position, citing an extreme gap between energy and the S&P 500
1. A Tight Band Before a Break
Lance opened on the technical picture. Bollinger Bands, which track standard deviations around the S&P 500's 50-day moving average, have narrowed sharply, and that narrowing has historically come before a wide move.
A compressed market usually rallies when it is oversold and sentiment is negative
"So, either the market's about to break down or we're about to break out to the upside, and don't know which it's going to be... but typically that argues for a rally from this level, not a further decline." — Lance Roberts
Lance added that the period after a midterm election has historically been a stronger one for stocks. He did not treat the setup as a forecast to act on in advance.
RIA Advisors waits for the market to break before it changes risk
"We don't assume anything. We let the markets tell us what it wants to do... I just need to know which way it's going to break." — Lance Roberts
The firm rebalances risk once the direction is clear rather than placing a bet ahead of it. Lance previewed four of the eight indicators in SimpleVisor AI, a platform the firm launches on November 1. Its sentiment gauge leaves out the S&P 500 itself, unlike the CNN Fear & Greed Index. Liquidity has been weak as rates rose. The technical trend is still bullish but near neutral. Breadth has improved to about 46% of stocks advancing, up from the low 30s, against the 60–70% of a healthy bull market.
