The David Lin Report · Oct 6, 2026 · 34m · 19m saved
With Josh Young, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Bison Interests
Diesel, gasoline and jet fuel recently sold for the equivalent of $250 a barrel, more than twice the price of crude, Josh Young said. That gap, not the oil price, is where consumers and economies are feeling the war with Iran.
News reports say tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is back near pre-war levels. Young said those reports rest on a few days of Navy-escorted convoys, that about 5% of tankers going through were probably hit, and that crude prices are likely to go higher from here.
"So bad information I think has actually unfortunately cost lives and injuries." — Josh Young
Josh Young, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Bison Interests, on The David Lin Report, has invested in publicly traded oil and gas stocks for nearly two decades. He also writes the Bison Insights newsletter. The interview was recorded on Monday, October 5.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 34 minutes of audio, 15 minutes of reading.
Here are the 12 predictions that matter.
Key Takeaways
Reported Hormuz tanker flows near pre-war levels reflect a few convoy days, not sustained traffic, Young said
He estimates probably about 5% of tankers that went through were hit
$90 WTI crude is good for the US economy; refined fuel at $200 to $250 a barrel equivalent is the real damage
Releasing crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve does not fix a shortage of diesel; releasing diesel does
US and Canadian refiners are running at about 95% instead of the usual 75% to 80%, which he ties partly to a Justice Department investigation
Weekly releases from the SPR fell from 7 to 9 million barrels to under half a million, which he said could drain commercial crude stocks
Refining margins should fall and crude prices should rise as refiners turn crude into diesel and gasoline
Investors hold very few bets on higher oil prices, which Young said has historically come before much higher prices
He gives "ultra low" weight to Trump's promise that the war ends soon; a source he cited counted 110 premature declarations of victory
Europe could ease the diesel shortage by pressing Ukraine to hit fewer Russian refineries
1. Hormuz Flows Are Overstated
The host opened with the market backdrop. Iran had said the Strait of Hormuz would stay shut until its conditions were met, and more tankers were hit over the weekend. WTI crude had fallen from $100 a few weeks earlier to just below $90. AAA put the national average diesel price at $6.32 a gallon, after a record $6.53 in September, and G7 countries had agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel from reserves. The host cited a Wall Street Journal report, drawing on Morgan Stanley and Kpler research, that weekly volumes out of the Gulf were back to 95% or 98% of pre-war traffic.
Young said the reports capture convoy days, not the overall flow
The US Navy has been escorting convoys of tankers through the strait and protecting them while they transfer oil to other tankers for export, he said. That produces short surges like those seen during the US-Iran ceasefire in May and June.
"And so there'll be days where there's really high flows that are not indicative of the overall flows." — Josh Young
"And it seems like it's sort of propaganda, right?" — Josh Young
He said the US side wants to show high flows to hold prices down. If flows really were near or above pre-war levels, as President Trump and others have said, he expects prices would have fallen much further.
"You would think the oil price would be down a lot like we saw in May and June down to let's say $70 WTI and it's not there." — Josh Young
He said the misleading reports may have cost lives
When flows rise, he said, Iran's Revolutionary Guards attack more tankers, and reports of those attacks came late. He estimated that probably about 5% of tankers that went through were hit, and that a high share of those were disabled or had crew hurt or killed. Sailors who believed the passage was safe may have gone through when they would otherwise not have, he said.
