Bloomberg Surveillance · Sep 30, 2026
With Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Commodities & Derivatives Research at Bank of America
The Financial Times reported that the Trump administration was holding crisis talks on a proposed diesel export ban, with diesel prices near all-time highs.
Keeping more diesel at home sounds like a way to bring prices down. Francisco Blanch said a ban could instead leave parts of the US short of diesel, push gasoline prices up and strain allies heading into winter.
"One of the issues with the ban is that you might end up creating shortages in parts of the U.S. that are importing diesel." — Francisco Blanch
Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, on Bloomberg Surveillance, had written that the outlook for diesel remains bullish, with elevated prices likely required to keep inventories from falling to critically low levels.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 4 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
A diesel export ban could create shortages in US regions that import diesel, unless enough ships are available to move fuel from Gulf Coast refineries
A ban could also push gasoline prices higher, because refiners would have less reason to keep running at full rates
The US blockade of Iranian oil is working, but it is expensive
Shipping costs exceed $20 a barrel, and two US aircraft carrier groups are tied up
China's onshore oil inventories have been falling by 2 to 3 million barrels a day, which may push Beijing toward a deal on the Strait of Hormuz
1. Three Risks in a Ban
The anchor asked what a US diesel export ban would look like and what it would do to prices.
Regions that import diesel could run short
Blanch said a ban would need ample shipping capacity inside the US to move diesel from Gulf Coast refineries to parts of the country that have historically depended on foreign fuel.
"So if you were to do this ban, you would need to do it in conjunction with ample shipping capacity within the U.S. — and shipping is complicated, we have record shipping costs right now." — Francisco Blanch
Gasoline prices could rise
US refiners run more crude than any others in the world, he said, and the country has gained market share in every major fuel by exporting. A ban would reduce the incentive to run those refineries.
"But under a ban, you have less incentive to run those refineries — you'd likely see some of them go into maintenance, and that might also push up the price of gasoline." — Francisco Blanch
Allies would need to step in
The third consideration, he said, is whether European governments would agree to release their strategic diesel reserves now, ahead of winter, to soften the effect.
