Signal or Noise · Oct 22, 2026 · 31m · 22m saved
With Peter Mallouk, CEO, Creative Planning
Photo via creativeplanning.com
The S&P 500 has posted 1,334 all-time highs since it started in 1957, and the pace has sped up from about one every 19 days historically to about one every eight days in recent years. Most investors see a new high and assume it's time to sell; Peter Mallouk, president and CEO of Creative Planning, told co-host Charlie Bilello on the firm's Signal or Noise show that the instinct has it backwards.
"The market's expected return rolling forward one, three, and five years is actually higher following an all-time high than all other time periods." — Peter Mallouk
Peter runs a firm that manages or advises on more than $780 billion in combined assets, and together with Charlie, Creative Planning's chief market strategist, he's spent 80 episodes testing which market beliefs hold up and which don't.
The full episode is covered here so you can skip it. 31 minutes of audio, 9 minutes of reading.
Here are the 8 takeaways that matter.
Key Takeaways
Expected returns are higher after an all-time high, not lower
The S&P has posted 1,334 highs since 1957, now about one every 8 days
Stocks and GDP are barely correlated
Only about 5% of a year's S&P return traces to GDP; 2020 and 2022 prove it
Stocks have risen even as the 10-year yield climbs
S&P returns have been higher, on average, when the 10-year yield is rising
Nike and Lululemon cratered while the index they're part of soared
Both fell over 70% in five years while the S&P rose over 80%
98% of professional stock-pickers lag their benchmark over 20 years
A long Treasury bet took on 23% volatility for little reward
A 25-plus-year zero-coupon ETF carried big risk without a big payoff
Ignoring politics beat picking a side by millions
$26 million versus $380,000 (Republican-only) and $693,000 (Democrat-only)
1. Highs Aren't a Sell Signal
Charlie opened with the pace of record highs; Peter's explanation for why that shouldn't scare anyone starts with ordinary pricing, not forecasting.
Expected returns are higher after a record, not lower
"The market's expected return rolling forward one, three, and five years is actually higher following an all-time high than all other time periods." — Peter Mallouk
Records tend to be followed by more records rather than an imminent top, he said, because prices for nearly everything — a Disney World ticket, a Hershey bar, a hotel room — are expected to rise over a decade, and stocks are no different once dividends, earnings growth and inflation are added in.
People trust that prices rise, except at the stock market
"If I were to ask anybody, do you think a ticket to Disney World's gonna cost more in 10 years? Of course... And I say the stock market, well, I don't know." — Peter Mallouk
The inconsistency is the whole myth, Peter argued: nobody questions that ordinary prices climb over a decade, but that same certainty evaporates the moment the asset in question is a stock index.
