Prof G Markets · Sep 30, 2026 · 16m · 6m saved
With Paul Kedrosky, Managing Partner at SK Ventures
Anthropic reported $4.6 billion of revenue for 2025 in its leaked draft S-1, up more than 1,000%, alongside an operating loss of $8 billion and a net loss of $42 billion. It is expected to go public in November at a record $2 trillion valuation.
The host called it the most highly valued IPO of all time. Paul Kedrosky said it is not a financing event at all. The company is not raising money for anything, he said, and the real sellers are insiders.
"I think what's really going on is people are unloading shares."
Paul Kedrosky, managing partner at SK Ventures, on Prof G Markets, started his career as an equity analyst, and he read the S-1 leak the way one would: customer concentration first, then what management wants left out of earnings.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 16 minutes of audio, 10 minutes of reading.
Here are the 11 arguments that matter.
Key Takeaways
Two customers make up about 25% of Anthropic's revenue, which he called extraordinary for a company this size
Other leaks put six customers at about 60%
Leaving out training costs is "earnings before bad things", he said: new models every six to 18 months are a running cost, not a building
Inference alone is probably cash-flow positive, but that proves little, because training dwarfs it
Stopping training would be catastrophic, not a path to profit, because China would undercut them on cheap, mass-produced AI
The frontier labs will end up like Ferraris, squeezed into the high-performance end of the market
Not WeWork-style fraud, but poor accounting that auditors should not accept and Wall Street should punish
At $2T, the buyer is the sucker, he said, and the IPO is insiders getting out
A third of the S-1 is risk factors, which he expects to invite a "litany of lawsuits"
Money is being pulled from other IPOs to make room, and he expects an initial pop and then a slide
1. The Leaked S-1
Market vitals
The host opened with the previous day's markets. The major indexes fell as the bond sell-off continued. The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002, and the 10-year climbed toward 5.3%. Brent crude fell to about $102 a barrel after the Trump administration ordered an emergency release from reserves. Apple shares fell nearly 3% on reports that its new chief executive, John Ternus, plans to slim down the company.
What Reuters saw
According to Reuters, which obtained the draft S-1, Anthropic reported $4.6 billion of revenue last year, up more than 1,000% from the year before, an operating loss of $8 billion and a net loss of $42 billion, the host said. Almost a third of the document explains risk factors, including customer concentration, with close to a quarter of revenue coming from two clients, and the existential threat to humanity. The company is expected to list in November at a record $2 trillion valuation, which would make it the most highly valued IPO ever.
Kedrosky said most of the numbers had already leaked in one form or another.
