Equity Mates · Oct 19, 2026 · 44m · 39m saved
With Pat Noll, Founder of Runestone Finance
Photo via youtube.com
Pat Noll, founder of the mortgage broker Runestone Finance, told Bryce Leske and Alec Renehan on Equity Mates that most of the big banks' forecasts show another couple of interest-rate rises for Australia, and that the property market has further to fall.
Most buyers in a falling market wait for a bottom. Pat said a buyer who can afford it and plans to hold for a decade can treat a 10% discount from six months ago as a reasonable time to get in.
"You don't want to catch the falling knife, so to speak, and maybe it's going to go lower, but I think it's a really good opportunity for people to get in provided you can afford it — that's the really big one." — Pat Noll
Pat arranges the mortgages behind these decisions, including the loan splits used in debt recycling, which he will only set up alongside a client's own accountant.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 44 minutes of audio, 5 minutes of reading.
Here are the 8 takeaways that matter.
Key Takeaways
The May budget's tax changes and persistently high rates are hitting Australian property at once
Pat sees "more pain to come," with the big banks forecasting another couple of rate rises
A 10% discount from six months ago can be an entry point for a buyer planning a 10-plus-year hold
Rentvesting is not dead, but buying to sell within a few years never worked
Debt recycling splits a mortgage so the invested part becomes tax-deductible debt
The most common mistake is not doing it at all
One wrong transfer can void the deduction, so Pat works only alongside the client's accountant
1. Two Pressures at Once
Pat attributes the current squeeze on affordability to two forces that arrived together.
Pat Noll blames the May budget's tax changes and high interest rates for the squeeze
"Broadly there's just a few things happening at the moment and it's all coinciding in one go... the tax changes obviously from the May budget is the big one. The other is we have persistently high interest rates on the back of high inflation." — Pat Noll
