Closing Bell: Overtime · Sep 29, 2026
With Adam Greenblatt, CEO of BetMGM
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket aren't pulling casual sports fans away from regulated sportsbooks, Adam Greenblatt said. They're mainly serving people regulated books can't legally take: professional bettors and 18-to-20-year-olds.
Most coverage of Kalshi and Polymarket frames them as an existential threat to sports betting incumbents. Greenblatt said BetMGM's own sports business has held up better than he expected, because the volume prediction markets are winning is coming from users the regulated industry was never allowed to serve in the first place.
"The surprise to me has been the resilience of our sports business." — Adam Greenblatt
Greenblatt runs BetMGM, the sports-betting and iGaming joint venture between MGM Resorts and Entain, and has set a public target of $500 million in EBITDA. He told CNBC's Contessa Brewer, at the Global Gaming Expo in Las Vegas, why he still isn't worried about prediction markets stealing his customers, and where the industry's real risks lie instead.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 5 takeaways that matter.
Key Takeaways
Prediction markets are mostly serving sharps and 18-to-20-year-olds, not casual bettors regulated books already have
Big unregulated states like Texas, California and Georgia are the opportunity, not the threat, for regulators to extend what's worked elsewhere
A rival prediction app signing Sydney Sweeney as a spokesperson worries him, because it normalizes betting for "a young and impressionable mind"
iGaming is legal in only seven states, and BetMGM calls itself an iGaming-first business built on the MGM brand
He calls the DraftKings AI-targeting story media spin, arguing that optimizing marketing efficiency is standard practice, and that the real conversation is responsible gambling
1. Sports Resilience Surprised
Contessa Brewer asked how BetMGM's $500 million EBITDA target holds up against the regulatory uncertainty created by Kalshi and Polymarket.
BetMGM's sports business has proven more resilient than expected
"Absolutely. Look, the answer for Bet MGM is in two parts. Number one, the surprise to me has been the resilience of our sports business." — Adam Greenblatt
Prediction markets mostly serve users regulated sportsbooks can't legally take
"And really what it highlights is that the primary volume that the prediction markets are enjoying, if you like, or exploiting, some might say are with institutional participants, sharps who can't play with in the OSB market, 18 to 20 year olds, which frankly is not a good outcome. And in states where you can't otherwise get online sports betting." — Adam Greenblatt
OSB is online sports betting — the regulated, licensed product BetMGM operates. Greenblatt's point was that prediction markets are capturing professional bettors barred from that regulated market, underage bettors who can't legally use it at all, and customers in states that haven't legalized it.
