Attackers took about $388 million from the crypto exchange Bitget last month. Gracy Chen, its CEO, said Bitget covered every dollar from its own capital.
Chen was one of 28 people quoted in this issue. The others ranged from Richard Mott, who said wine and liquor fell from 33% to 24% of his Chicago restaurant's sales in 18 months, to Tim Travis, who said the share price of one business-development company implies 48% of its loans defaulting while its charge-offs run near 0.1%, and Parag Agrawal, who said AI agents' web traffic has at least 5,000x of growth left.
"We also made a decision that... we will make all the users whole. We as a company will bear all the financial impact of this incident." — Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget, on The Wolf Of All Streets (Read summary)
We scanned 819 shows and 19 hours of audio, wrote 20 summaries, and pulled 56 quotes into this 22-minute read.
Here is what mattered.
Macro
The S&P 500's earnings yield is almost level with the 10-year Treasury yield, Marchese says
Andrew Marchese said the equity risk premium, the extra return stocks are expected to pay over bonds, is close to zero. He expects it to move in a range of 0 to 200 basis points rather than return to its historical level.
"If you take the earnings yield of the S&P minus 10-year bond yield, you get a number that's extremely close to zero. You can see it really the only time in history where it went negative was during the dot-com bubble." — Andrew Marchese, CIO at Fidelity Canada, on FidelityConnects (Read summary)
About 44 AI-linked companies are carrying the S&P 500's earnings growth this year
Forecasts for S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026 have risen from about 12% to 14% at the start of the year to more than 30%, Marchese said, with about 12% to 13% forecast for 2027.
"About 44 companies that I would say are either strongly or loosely correlated with AI... combined earnings growth has been about 41%." — Andrew Marchese, CIO at Fidelity Canada, on FidelityConnects (Read summary)
The S&P 500 has fallen to 19 times earnings because profits rose while prices stalled
Lance Roberts said valuations falling while earnings rise usually marks a bottoming process rather than the top that media coverage implies.
"Valuations are 19 times earnings now. We've had a very, very nice correction in valuations because earnings are increasing and the market's going nowhere." — Lance Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist at RIA Advisors, on Thoughtful Money (Read summary)
Tilson has told his family to move part of their money out of SPY, where 10 stocks make up 40%
Whitney Tilson's newsletter job bars him from trading the stocks he recommends, so his family's money sits in index funds. He has advised shifting part of it into RSP, an equal-weighted S&P 500 fund, and VXUS, a Vanguard international index fund.
"I buy index funds... I've recently recommended that they shift from SPY, which is market cap weighted, which means 40% of what you're buying is the top 10 stocks, mostly tech stocks, which is an all-time high. I worry that it's sort of getting top heavy." — Whitney Tilson, Editor at Stansberry Research, on Bloomberg Intelligence (Read summary)
Today's bond yields are normal and the negative-rate years were the exception, Rzepczynski says
Mark Rzepczynski built a fair nominal yield from real growth near 2.5% and inflation that has run above the 2% target for more than six years. He arrived at 5% to 5.5% before adding any term premium.
"Note that the current environment is a return to normalcy. The oddity of the bond market was the periods where we had rates that were in some cases in Europe negative." — Mark Rzepczynski, Founding Partner and CEO at AMPHI Research and Trading, on Top Traders Unplugged (Read summary)
Treasury yields rose at every maturity while the Fed cut rates by 175bps, Piepenburg says
Matthew Piepenburg was describing the Fed's cuts from September 2024 to January 2026. He said the rise in yields means the bond market, not the central bank, now sets rates.
"When he cut rates by 175 basis points... yields across the entire yield curve, from the short end to the long end, actually went up. This has never happened before in the history of the Fed." — Matthew Piepenburg, Partner at Von Greyerz, on VRIC Media (Read summary)
Financials
CME's single-stock futures give 5 to 6 times exposure on 15% to 20% margin
Tim McCourt said CME has traded more than 350,000 of the contracts, worth $3 billion to $3.5 billion, since launching them about two months ago. Buying a stock on margin gives roughly 2-to-1 leverage by comparison.
"The single stock future is a, most of them are 15 to about 20 percent initial margins. So you're looking at five to six times the exposure for the capital that you have to outlay." — Tim McCourt, Senior Managing Director at CME Group, on Animal Spirits Podcast (Read summary)
Shorting a CME stock future needs no borrowed shares, which makes it a cheaper hedge
Shorting a stock means locating and borrowing the shares first, and short sales can fall under an uptick-style restriction. McCourt said the futures carry neither requirement, so options traders can hedge with less capital.
"One of the benefits of single stock futures is there's no locate, there's no borrow, there's no things like reg show rule 201, positive bid test for shorting the stock." — Tim McCourt, Senior Managing Director at CME Group, on Animal Spirits Podcast (Read summary)
Robinhood customers have used the AI pullback to sell Tesla and buy SpaceX, its CIO says
Stephanie Guild said customers have also moved out of consumer names such as Nike and Apple and into chipmakers such as Micron and Intel.
"We've been seeing customers actually take advantage of the pullback in certain names in the AI space. They actually have been selling Tesla and buying SpaceX in place of that." — Stephanie Guild, CIO at Robinhood, on Bloomberg Intelligence (Read summary)
Robinhood holds over $34B in retirement accounts, about 10% of its asset base
Guild said those accounts are more long-term oriented than the rest. Robinhood Strategies, the firm's managed-money product, has run for about a year and a half.
"We've got 10% of our asset base, like over $34 billion in retirement accounts that are more long-term oriented. We've got Robin Hood Strategies where we're managing the money for you and that's at two billion." — Stephanie Guild, CIO at Robinhood, on Bloomberg Intelligence (Read summary)
AI agents would make it easier to leave a bank, which is why banks block them, Leshner says
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citi and Schwab have restricted AI agents from acting inside customer accounts, according to Axios reporting discussed on the show. Robert Leshner said an agent that can click a button worries banks far more than Plaid's read-only account access ever did.
"It's really net a consumer benefit, and it sort of runs against the interest of the bank if it makes it easier for consumers to shift their money to close accounts, to rebalance things." — Robert Leshner, Founder and CEO at Superstate, on Unchained (Read summary)
One BDC's share price implies 48% of its loans defaulting while charge-offs run near 0.1%
Business-development companies, which mostly hold senior first-lien loans, trade at valuations last seen in the Great Recession, Tim Travis said. His example was BlueOwl Technology, which has above-average software exposure.
"If you assume 50% recoveries on its defaults, 48% of the portfolio would have to default... and current net charge-offs are like 0.1% for them." — Tim Travis, Publisher at Value Options Letter, on The Acquirers Podcast (Read summary)
Crypto and Digital Assets
Bitget's CEO says a vendor with privileged access is part of the exchange's own security
Gracy Chen said the attackers used a previously unknown flaw in a third-party security product to obtain high-level internal credentials. Private keys and cold wallets were not touched.
"Any vendor with especially privileged access is part of our security. We can't treat them just like a third party that... it's not my business." — Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget, on The Wolf Of All Streets (Read summary)
Maybe $10M of the $388M stolen from Bitget has been frozen so far
Chen said the laundering looks very similar to the Lazarus Group's methods, though there is no formal attribution. She said exchanges need faster intelligence-sharing to trace stolen money.
"The freezing part of our stolen fund is still at a very minimum number of maybe 10 millions out of the 388 million that we were stolen off." — Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget, on The Wolf Of All Streets (Read summary)
Non-crypto assets reached almost 40% of Bitget's trading volume
Chen said tokenized commodities and perpetual futures on US stocks drove the shift, while crypto trading volume across the industry is still down about 30% from a year ago.
"Non-crypto assets counted for almost 40% of our total trading volume." — Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget, on The Wolf Of All Streets (Read summary)
Paying on a public blockchain can leak a company's numbers before earnings, NEAR's co-founder says
Illia Polosukhin said businesses now want to use crypto, but public blockchains expose every transaction and payment.
"If you're a public company, this becomes like actual like regulatory concerns as well, right? That you're effectively disclosing information you're not supposed to before earnings calls." — Illia Polosukhin, Co-Founder at NEAR Protocol, on The Rollup (Read summary)
NEAR AI gives users a signed record of the prompt, the response and the hardware used
Polosukhin said NEAR AI runs open-weight models inside encrypted enclaves, so neither NEAR nor the host sees the user's data or a model builder's weights.
"If you try NEAR AI, you actually get like literally certifications with hashes on the prompt, on the response, signature... hardware signatures, like exact hardware that it was run on." — Illia Polosukhin, Co-Founder at NEAR Protocol, on The Rollup (Read summary)
NEAR can add post-quantum signatures without the migration Bitcoin faces, its engineer says
Anton, a protocol engineer at NEAR, said the network has already shipped one post-quantum signing scheme, ML-DSA-65.
"NEAR is ultimately better positioned than many earlier blockchains, especially Bitcoin... because of the original choice of the account model that is multi-cryptography by design, meaning we can add more signing schemes anytime." — Anton, Protocol Engineer at NEAR, on The Rollup (Read summary)
A reported $2.5B Visa deal would be a decent exit for Fireblocks, Leshner says
Axios reported that Visa is in talks to buy the crypto custody firm for about $2.5 billion, against an $8 billion valuation in 2021. Fireblocks denied the report, and Leshner said he has no inside knowledge of the deal.
"If it does happen, hypothetically speaking, I think it's a good acquisition for Visa. I think it's a decent enough outcome for Fireblocks. I don't know what other path Fireblocks would have right now. I doubt they're going public." — Robert Leshner, Founder and CEO at Superstate, on Unchained (Read summary)
Alternatives and PE
The Southeast's biggest homebuilders have overbuilt and are pulling back, a land fund operator says
Brandon R. runs a land-entitlement fund that concentrated on deals for the largest national homebuilders. He said those builders are now canceling contracts, and he is putting up his own equity to protect his investors.
"The biggest builders in the country in the Southeast have overbuilt and they're pulling back." — Brandon R., Land Entitlement Fund Operator, on Centimillionaire Strategies (Read summary)
Homebuyers fear losing their jobs to AI and will not take a 6.5% to 7% mortgage, Brandon R. says
"They're worried about losing their jobs to AI. They don't want to pay a 6 and a half, 7% mortgage." — Brandon R., Land Entitlement Fund Operator, on Centimillionaire Strategies (Read summary)
A short book that loses 20% still lifts a resource fund's gain to 135% from 100%, Mullin says
Robert Mullin, founder of Marathon Resource Advisors, walked through the math with a book of 150% gross long and 75% gross short positions. He said the short book matters most in a drawdown, when it lets the fund buy resource stocks whose dividend yields have spiked.
"Even if you lose 20% on your short book over the course of that same performance period, you've lost 20% times 75 gross... you're up 135% instead of 100%." — Robert Mullin, Founder at Marathon Resource Advisors, on The Market Huddle (Read summary)
Hedge fund quants all learned the same machine-learning methods, so their edge is fading
Rzepczynski cited research finding that more than 90% of hedge fund managers use machine learning, and a study of 13F filings showing their positions growing more alike.
"There is no secret sauce with the techniques, because the techniques are being taught in schools, and those are the people that are being hired as quants at all these firms." — Mark Rzepczynski, Founding Partner and CEO at AMPHI Research and Trading, on Top Traders Unplugged (Read summary)
This week brought the 4th day since 2020 when all 3 major hedge fund strategies lost over 80bps
Jordi Visser, citing Goldman Sachs data, tied the losses to the unwinding of trades that were long French bond yields against German ones.
"Goldman Sachs reported... that since 2020 after COVID there had only been 3 days that the major strategies... were down more than 80 basis points in one day... all three of those were this year. Well, we had another one on Thursday." — Jordi Visser, Macro Investor at VisserLabs, on The Pomp Podcast (Read summary)
Consumer
Wine and liquor fell from 33% to 24% of North Pond's sales in 18 months
Richard Mott said wine is the Chicago restaurant's most profitable sale. He blamed younger guests drinking less, cannabis alternatives and possibly GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.
"For the first 28 years, our liquor and wine sales were just a hair over 33%, every year like clockwork. In the last 18 months, that has dropped to 24%. That is a huge deal, because that 8% was the most profitable sales that we did." — Richard Mott, Owner at North Pond, on Odd Lots (Read summary)
North Pond has raised prices 4 times in 2 years, against about once a year before
Mott said starting cooks cost about 30% more than they did three or four years ago.
"Everything that we put on the plate, we bought that week. So when there's inflation, we see it immediately. We've raised prices four times in the last two years." — Richard Mott, Owner at North Pond, on Odd Lots (Read summary)
Restaurants that obey labor and immigration law run at a 5% to 10% cost disadvantage, Mott says
Mott said the laws he means are labor, immigration and overtime rules, and the gap is against competitors who do not follow them.
"If you are intent on obeying the law, you're going to operate at a 5%, 10% deficit to all your competitors." — Richard Mott, Owner at North Pond, on Odd Lots (Read summary)
Fewer diners come to North Pond for a routine night out, and more for anniversaries and birthdays
A dinner for two with the wine pairing now costs about $400, Mott said.
"We're getting a higher percentage of our guests coming in for very special events — the 25th anniversary, the 50th birthday... we don't get as many 'hey, it's Thursday night, let's treat ourselves.' It's becoming much more of an event." — Richard Mott, Owner at North Pond, on Odd Lots (Read summary)
Technology & AI
AI agents' web traffic has at least 5,000x of growth left, Parallel's CEO says
Parag Agrawal once predicted agents would use the web 1,000 times more than people, and now thinks that was too low. His own agents run several thousand searches a day, against about 10 for an average person.
"Agents are using the web 10 to 20% of humans. Which is to say, if my thousandx number is right, we have from here at least 5,000x or 10,000x growth left." — Parag Agrawal, Founder and CEO at Parallel Web Systems, on Sourcery with Molly O'Shea (Read summary)
For every 10 GPUs spent on agents' inference, 1 to 2 will go to web search, Agrawal says
Parallel builds search that runs on GPUs rather than conventional processors, sized for agents rather than people.
"For every 10 GPUs the world spends on model inference for agents... will spend one to two on web search. That's the business I'm in." — Parag Agrawal, Founder and CEO at Parallel Web Systems, on Sourcery with Molly O'Shea (Read summary)
Parallel pays content owners each time an agent reads their pages, so they stay open to AI
Agrawal said agents keep the buying but skip the page views that ads and subscriptions depend on, which gives publishers a reason to block them unless they are paid.
"We've built a system which runs a model... to compute how much to pay each content owner every time an agent reads their content." — Parag Agrawal, Founder and CEO at Parallel Web Systems, on Sourcery with Molly O'Shea (Read summary)
Agents went from about 1% of Notion's users at the start of 2026 to 30%
Akshay Kothari said most people he met on a trip around the world this summer still use AI as a better search tool.
"Starting of the year, maybe 1% of our users were agents interacting with Notion. I think that number is 30% today." — Akshay Kothari, Co-Founder and COO at Notion, on WTF is with Nikhil Kamath (Read summary)
Companies have gone from using as much AI as possible to asking where the money goes
"We've gone from token maxing in the beginning of the year — everybody use AI as much as you can — to within six months... token economics. It's like, wait, where is all the money going?" — Akshay Kothari, Co-Founder and COO at Notion, on WTF is with Nikhil Kamath (Read summary)
Software teams now do the same work at half to 60% of their old size, Turing's CTO says
Vijay Krishnan said coding is the one area where the gains are undisputed. He said he has yet to see a Fortune 500 company, other than sellers of AI infrastructure, that has meaningfully grown revenue or cut costs from AI.
"Teams are safely able to function at about half the size, maybe 60% of the size, compared to what they were before... I have not seen anybody disputing that." — Vijay Krishnan, Founder and CTO at Turing, on WTF is with Nikhil Kamath (Read summary)
The value in coding agents goes to the model maker, not the tool, Unconventional AI's CEO says
Naveen Rao said people in his own company switch between coding tools easily. He said robotics will eventually be 100 times larger than coding agents.
"I actually do think that agentic coding stuff is quite overrated in terms of a market, because I think it moves to the model provider... it's not the harness or the IDE so much — it's the model that matters." — Naveen Rao, Founder and CEO at Unconventional AI, on The Twenty Minute VC (20VC) (Read summary)
Chip efficiency gains now come from smaller number formats, not denser transistors, Rao says
"We don't really see physical efficiency gains anymore... most of the efficiency gains we've seen over the last several generations have come from smaller data types — going from 32-bit to 16-bit to 8-bit to 4-bit." — Naveen Rao, Founder and CEO at Unconventional AI, on The Twenty Minute VC (20VC) (Read summary)
Mott Capital's founder expects CoreWeave and most AI cloud providers to go bankrupt
Michael Kramer said CoreWeave's management is selling stock and Magnetar Capital has sold its entire position. Neoclouds are companies that rent out AI computing capacity.
"I fully expect CoreWeave is going to go bankrupt, as will most of the other Neoclouds. The only way they're not going to go bankrupt, in my opinion, will be through a take-under... maybe Nvidia takes out CoreWeave at $2 a share, a la Bear Stearns." — Michael Kramer, Founder at Mott Capital Management, on Market Talk with George Noble (Read summary)
AI data centers borrow for 10 years and sell capacity on 3- to 5-year contracts, Chitra says
Tarun Chitra said that gap between the length of the debt and the length of the contracts is where an AI-driven financial crisis would start.
"There's a lot of duration mismatch — neoclouds and hyperscalers are borrowing at 10-year tranches, then chopping that up and selling three-to-five-year contracts to inference providers. If you try to add up all the numbers, there's some slippage that is unexplained." — Tarun Chitra, Managing Partner at Robot Ventures, on Unchained (Read summary)
Visser's company has more AI agents at work than people
Jordi Visser said the agents, first used in engineering and product, are now being extended into finance and operations.
"We have more agents that work at the public company than we do people." — Jordi Visser, Macro Investor at VisserLabs, on The Pomp Podcast (Read summary)
SpaceX scores 10 on profitability but 1 on earnings revisions in Vermilion's model
Dave Nicoski said the result puts SpaceX in his quant model's sell bucket, while Nvidia, Apple, Google and Microsoft rank best.
"Their profitability is a 10... their free cash flow is a nine, earnings revisions is a one, and they rank in our sell model actually — SpaceX, that is." — Dave Nicoski, Co-Founder at Vermilion Research, on Market Talk with George Noble (Read summary)
Tech stocks are priced for 45% annual earnings growth for 5 years, Nicoski says
"The street thinks tech is going to grow earnings 45% every year for the next five years. If that goes to 60 or 70 or 80, then maybe I'm wrong and we get another massive beta rally." — Dave Nicoski, Co-Founder at Vermilion Research, on Market Talk with George Noble (Read summary)
Anthropic's reported $80B loss was a markdown on convertible notes, not an operating loss
Lance Roberts said Anthropic's operating loss narrowed from the year before, on about $16 billion of trailing revenue three years after its founding.
"The net loss, this $80 billion that everybody was so focused on, was just the change in the fair value of convertible notes and other instruments." — Lance Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist at RIA Advisors, on Thoughtful Money (Read summary)
Piper Sandler's strategist calls Meta's new share class potentially dilutive
"The whole thing with Meta I thought was really kind of telling that these guys are starting to run out of options... creating this dual class of stocks. I find that to be potentially disturbing... very dilutive for people that get stuck with the C shares." — Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, on Market Talk with George Noble (Read summary)
VC & Startups
Users leave an incumbent AI product only for one that is about 10 times better, Horowitz says
Ben Horowitz said switching costs and familiarity, not network effects, keep users in place while AI applications are still in a land grab.
"Possession is nine-tenths of the law in competing on software... you don't take out a competitor with an equally good product or a slightly better... It's like a 10 times better product." — Ben Horowitz, Co-Founder at a16z, on a16z (Read summary)
Cursor runs 14 models, which is why Horowitz calls the wrapper critique of AI apps wrong
Critics say AI startups have no defense because they sit on someone else's model. Horowitz said the apps also build up usage data of their own that competitors cannot copy.
"The GPT wrapper thing was always a bit of a dumb idea... when I look at the applications that are built on LLMs today, they themselves have many models. Cursor, this is like 14 models now." — Ben Horowitz, Co-Founder at a16z, on a16z (Read summary)
OpenAI's reported $1.25T valuation is about 30 times its revenue, Calacanis says
CNBC reported that OpenAI is close to raising up to $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion pre-money valuation. Jason Calacanis said multiples of 100 times revenue were being discussed a year earlier.
"Their annualized revenue run rate is approximately $50 billion... it's 30 times price-to-sales ratio... for an incredibly high-growing business, I think they've actually rightsized the valuation to a certain extent." — Jason Calacanis, Host and Owner, on This Week in Startups (Read summary)
Materials & Energy
Resource-sector capex is down about 75% after inflation since 2012-2014, Mullin says
Mullin said the long-lead projects needed for production from 2025 to 2035 were never started, so the current commodity bull market is driven by supply rather than by Chinese demand.
"By my numbers, spending in capex in the resource sector has gone down about 50% on a nominal basis and about 75% inflation-adjusted since the 2012 to 2014 range." — Robert Mullin, Founder at Marathon Resource Advisors, on The Market Huddle (Read summary)
Marathon buys energy producers in places with bad energy policy, betting the policy improves
Mullin's example was UK North Sea producers, which face windfall tax rates near 80% and trade at 2 to 3 times cash flow with 15% dividend yields.
"We like buying energy in jurisdictions that have had really bad energy policy, on the bet that it gets a little less stupid." — Robert Mullin, Founder at Marathon Resource Advisors, on The Market Huddle (Read summary)
Mullin is short the big copper miners, whose rally he puts down to low-conviction buyers
He is long a small basket of next-generation copper developers in good jurisdictions, sized to attract a takeover bid from a major miner.
"We're actually short some of the big-cap developed copper companies, the global majors... because we think there's... an element of AI bros who decided to round out their portfolios with a little copper and a little natural gas, and those are very low-conviction holdings." — Robert Mullin, Founder at Marathon Resource Advisors, on The Market Huddle (Read summary)
RIA Advisors has sold its entire energy position, Roberts says
Roberts said energy's performance against the S&P 500 is at an extreme that has usually come before a reversal. The sale also harvested gains for tax purposes, and RIA plans to rebuild the position differently, including in power generation for data centers.
"We sold the entirety of our energy holdings." — Lance Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist at RIA Advisors, on Thoughtful Money (Read summary)
Policy
A national wealth tax could work but California's would drive people out, Tilson says
Tilson pointed to Mark Zuckerberg's threatened move out of California over the state's proposed tax as evidence.
"I think California's wealth tax, for example, is a bad idea. If one state does it, you just drive out, drive people out... A national wealth tax properly, properly constructed... could work as well." — Whitney Tilson, Editor at Stansberry Research, on Bloomberg Intelligence (Read summary)
Calacanis would tax margin loans against stock and refund the tax when the loan is repaid
The California measure would be a one-time 5% tax on residents worth more than $1 billion.
"This whole thing would be mitigated if they just said anytime you take out a margin loan, you pay the taxes on that margin loan... and then if you pay the margin loan back, you get the credit for that tax." — Jason Calacanis, Host and Owner, on This Week in Startups (Read summary)
Nuggets of Wisdom
Horowitz took Opsware public on $2M of revenue because the other choice was bankruptcy
Every private investor had turned the company down, and its forecast called for growth to $75 million. Horowitz said the decisions he is proudest of were not hard to work out, only hard to make.
"The other choice... was bankruptcy. So that was obviously a worse choice than going public. To be able to do such a bad choice like going public and not hesitate, just go, okay, I'm going to do it — that was the magic of that decision." — Ben Horowitz, Co-Founder at a16z, on a16z (Read summary)
A software founder delayed his launch to match incumbents' features instead of selling what already worked
Karl P. founded OnTime ATS, which makes timesheet software for home-care companies.
"I didn't take it to market because I felt that I needed features to compete with the incumbents rather than just leading with the single solution." — Karl P., Founder at OnTime ATS, on Centimillionaire Strategies (Read summary)
A debt fund's 2008 mistake was sticking to one exit plan, which forced sales at the worst time
Rich J. runs a debt fund of about $800 million that now lends against diversified portfolios rather than single assets.
"A hyper focus on the exit strategy that we had contemplated at the beginning, and not having the flexibility to adjust." — Rich J., Debt Fund Operator, on Centimillionaire Strategies (Read summary)
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