Exchanges · Nov 4, 2026 · 21m · 14m saved
With John Waldron, President and Chief Operating Officer of Goldman Sachs
Photo via fortune.com
Corporate dealmaking is headed for a record year, up 30% to 35%, and John Waldron says that is itself a signal worth watching. John, president and chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs, told Allison Nathan on Goldman Sachs Exchanges that sustained M&A activity is "generally speaking, a pretty good indicator of CEO confidence," since chief executives don't pursue deals unless they feel secure in their own business.
"We're going to see corporate M&A up 30%, 35% this year... should be a record year in M&A." — John Waldron
John runs day-to-day operations at one of Wall Street's largest banks and sits across the table from the CEOs making those calls, which is why his read on sentiment carries weight.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 21 minutes of audio, 7 minutes of reading.
Here are the 6 takeaways that matter.
Key Takeaways
Corporate M&A could rise 30% to 35% this year to a record, John says
He calls sustained M&A activity a good indicator of CEO confidence
Client sentiment is still optimistic but "a little more cautious at the margin" than six to 12 months ago
Companies are pursuing scale and "fit and focus" at the same time, a rare combination
Japan now has much more positive sentiment; Europe needs "a hug," John jokes
Goldman runs a four-pronged AI strategy, and expects 2027 to be bigger than 2026 for its deployment
The firm has $4 trillion of assets on its asset-management platform
1. Optimistic, More Cautious
John described corporate and investor sentiment as still generally optimistic, though a notch more cautious than six to 12 months ago, as higher inflation and higher rates raise the cost of capital and complicate planning for 2027.
Clients are still optimistic, but more cautious than six to 12 months ago, John says
"Still, generally speaking, optimistic. Maybe a little more cautious at the margin versus where it would have been six, 12 months ago." — John Waldron
Large multinational CEOs in particular are grappling with geopolitics, including the Iran situation. Even so, nominal US growth north of 6% and strong earnings are keeping clients net-positive.
Strong nominal growth and earnings are keeping clients net-positive, John says
"Fortunately, nominal growth is very good, so most companies are seeing pretty strong end demand, and we still have very strong earnings." — John Waldron
John expects real GDP growth around 2.5%, potentially 3%, depending on how inflation migrates down.
