Money Stuff: The Podcast · Oct 9, 2026 · 54m · 36m saved
With Jeremy Maletz, Head of Prediction Markets at Susquehanna International Group
Susquehanna sold a California goat herder $500,000 of protection against a state wage rule for $50,000, and priced it by having someone phone goat herders and lobbyists.
Most prediction-market trading today comes from people betting on outcomes, and sports is still more than half of Susquehanna's prediction-market business. Jeremy Maletz said the business only lasts if companies come to it to hedge real risks, and the companies calling now are mostly data center owners.
"When we look at data centers and just the total size of the risk that's probably uncovered right now, it's in the hundreds of billions of dollars." — Jeremy Maletz
Jeremy Maletz, Head of Prediction Markets at Susquehanna International Group, on Money Stuff: The Podcast, joined the trading firm through a recruiting poker tournament 20 years ago, ran its macro trading desk, and started the prediction markets desk four years ago as a side project that he now calls "a very large business for us."
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 54 minutes of audio, 18 minutes of reading.
Here are the 18 takeaways that matter.
Key Takeaways
Data centers are most of the hedging interest Susquehanna hears, though not most of the trades it has done
The two worries are a local moratorium on new data centers and a tenant going bankrupt
The goat hedge was priced by phone: a Susquehanna trader called goat herders and lobbyists
Susquehanna passes on closer to 10% than 90% of the risk from its custom hedges and holds the rest itself
Sports is more than half of the business, but non-sports is growing faster
Hedgers, not bettors, are what will make prediction markets last, Maletz said
No portfolio margin yet: Susquehanna puts up 90 cents or more for each dollar it might pay out
That makes multi-year contracts, such as one on the LA Olympics being canceled, hard to offer
Real businesses hedge the specific policy; hedge funds hedge the whole election
Trades of hundreds of millions of dollars could come within months, tied to data centers and AI-lab bankruptcy risk
1. Macro Desk to Goat Markets
The host introduced his guest as "the head of goat markets." Maletz said "head of prediction markets" goes over better on a business card.
The prediction markets desk grew out of Susquehanna's macro desk
As head of macro, he followed elections closely. Susquehanna traded election contracts in Europe on Betfair, where that style of contract was legal, and watched US election sites it could not trade on for what their prices said.
"The macro kind of transitioned into the prediction markets, which started out as a side project and now is a very large business for us." — Jeremy Maletz
The host asked whether it began the way crypto desks began at other trading firms, with young staff and a hobby, in this case sports betting. Maletz said sports were not part of prediction markets when Susquehanna started, but there is a lot of overlap. He and the firm's other head of prediction markets got to know each other through sports, as DraftKings-style betting spread.
"Like the genesis of our business came from the macro angle, but it's kind of hard to disconnect them because people at Susquehanna are just very into predicting anything that we can." — Jeremy Maletz
