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Ex-Neuberger PM on Big Tech: "70% of their AI revenue is from Anthropic and OpenAI"

14 takeaways: why he counts more than 60% of the S&P 500 as one AI trade, why US banks are safe for the first time in his life, and why he closed his FICO short after a 60% drop

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Oct 09, 2026
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In the Money with Amber Kanwar · Oct 8, 2026 · 34m · 21m saved

With Steve Eisman, Host of The Real Eisman Playbook and Former Senior Portfolio Manager at Neuberger Berman

Ex-Neuberger PM on Big Tech: "70% of their AI revenue is from Anthropic and OpenAI"

Steve Eisman counts information technology at 40% of the S&P 500, and said that once the other tech names, the utilities and the AI power suppliers are added, probably more than 60% of the index is tied to one trade.

Investors who called 2008 are usually asked for the next crash. Eisman said he is not calling one: he is cautiously long, owns Nvidia, and says the risk is that the index investors treat as diversified now rises and falls with AI.

"And so if you own the S&P you're not diversified you're versified" — Steve Eisman

Steve Eisman, host of The Real Eisman Playbook and a former senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, on In the Money with Amber Kanwar, made his name betting against subprime mortgages before the financial crisis, a trade told in the film The Big Short, and now invests his own money rather than clients'.

The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 34 minutes of audio, 13 minutes of reading.

Here are the 14 takeaways that matter.


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Key Takeaways

  • The S&P 500 is not diversified: he counts more than 60% of it as tied to AI

  • Five accounts make up 70% of Nvidia's accounts receivable, he said, citing its 10-Q

  • If OpenAI or Anthropic got into trouble, he said, the whole chain would unwind

    • The risks he named: a price war in AI models, cost-conscious customers, open-weight models and no loyalty to any model

  • He owns Nvidia and is not shorting AI, because shorting a strong narrative loses money

  • The bond market is not worried until credit spreads widen, and he has not seen that

  • US banks are safe for the first time in his life, and private credit's test comes when software loans refinance next year

  • He was wrong to short the Canadian banks, and no longer invests outside the US at all

  • US government debt does not worry him, because the world's financial plumbing runs on Treasuries

  • He closed his FICO short after the stock fell 60%, saying a small piece of good news can reverse a stock that far down

1. Not Calling a Crash

The host, who started her journalism career during the financial crisis, asked whether he likes being known as the Big Short guy.

He has accepted the label

"As far as I can tell, it's going to be on my tombstone." — Steve Eisman

He said interviewers often want him to predict the end of the world again. When Ray Dalio had just done so, he told CNBC that the people forecasting doom all want to be him, and that the role of Steve Eisman is taken.

He agreed he is cautiously long the market

As long as the AI narrative continues, he said, the market will be fine, because the whole market is one trade right now.

2. The S&P Is One AI Trade

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