The Exchange · Sep 24, 2026
With Steven Wieting, Chief Investment Strategist at CIO Group
After past Fed tightening cycles began, Steven Wieting said, economic expansions have lasted another five and a half years on average.
The 10-year Treasury yield had just risen 50 basis points in a month, and the question put to him was whether the bond market was about to break stocks. His answer was that it usually does not, and that the bigger risk is a Fed that keeps tightening into an investment boom and then gets its policy wrong.
"I think history shows these types of moves in the bond market that are associated with Fed tightening cycles, they really don't break the back of the equity market when new tightening cycles have taken place."
Steven Wieting, chief investment strategist at CIO Group, on CNBC's The Exchange, joined the program's opening segment on a day when the 10-year yield had risen 15 basis points the session before.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 3 arguments that matter.
Key Takeaways
Bond selloffs during Fed tightening cycles have not usually ended bull markets
Expansions have lasted another five and a half years on average after tightening cycles began
A Fed that tightens hard into an investment boom is the scenario he worries about
Raising rates for every oil shock is the wrong reflex, in his view, because most energy shocks do their damage within a year
Nominal and inflation-adjusted yields are now higher all the way out to 30 years
1. Yields Rarely Break Stocks
The host opened with the size of the bond move: the 10-year yield up 50 basis points in a month and 15 basis points the day before. She asked whether this was a breaking point for stocks, and whether he was impressed by how well they were holding up.
Past tightening cycles did not end the equity market's run
"I think history shows these types of moves in the bond market that are associated with Fed tightening cycles, they really don't break the back of the equity market when new tightening cycles have taken place." — Steven Wieting
"We've had expansions on average that have lasted another five and a half years." — Steven Wieting
