The Julia La Roche Show · Sep 26, 2026 · 32m · 16m saved
With Chris Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst
Fertilizer prices have risen eightfold over the past 12 months, Chris Whalen said, and farmers who cannot pay them will use less of it and harvest less next year.
Most of the economists he follows want the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates to fight inflation. Whalen said the inflation now coming, from damaged Persian Gulf refineries through diesel and fertilizer to food, is beyond the Fed's reach, and that the next move is more likely a cut once high prices start to destroy demand.
"It's already baked into the cake, Julia — there's nothing we can do about this, and it hasn't shown up fully yet."
Chris Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, on The Julia La Roche Show's weekly segment The Wrap with Chris Whalen. He publishes The Institutional Risk Analyst, wrote the book Inflated, once worked for Senator Fritz Hollings of South Carolina, and names the positions he holds in his own portfolio, which he did again in this interview.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 32 minutes of audio, 16 minutes of reading.
Here are the 15 takeaways that matter.
Key Takeaways
Long-term rates have reset for good, Whalen said, because of doubts about US credibility rather than anything the Fed did
Mortgage rates are about the 10-year Treasury yield plus two percentage points, well over 7%
The Fed's rate rise was about its credibility, and he thinks it has already lost control of 10-year and 30-year yields
He expects gold to return as the base of the currency system, and he is still very long gold and silver
The dollar will stay the currency of trade but not a store of value, in his view
Food prices are next: fertilizer is up 8x and a third of this year's use may be gone next year
Most goods reach grocery stores by diesel truck, and diesel is short
High fuel prices could force the Fed to cut rates late this year or in 2027
He sold part of his Annaly stake and bought energy stocks
Social Security should be means-tested, he said, and the deficit cut in half every year
1. Long Rates Have Reset
The host said the 30-year Treasury yield had printed its highest level since 2004 and the 10-year had gone through 5%. She asked whether this was a temporary drop in demand or a lasting reset. Whalen said it was a reset.
The rise is about US credibility
"I think the rise in long-term interest rates is about the credibility of the United States, and also the noise coming from the Trump administration." — Chris Whalen
"A lot of what President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have to say about interest rates and policy generally doesn't make a lot of sense, and I think that scares people." — Chris Whalen
He said the rise has nothing to do with the Fed, which he had described on X the day before as "redundzel," a term he credited to Frank Zappa.
