CNBC Television Sep 25, 2026
With Cathie Wood, Founder, CEO and CIO of Ark Invest
Cathie Wood expects real global GDP growth to run north of 7% over the next 3 to 5 years. By her firm's count, growth averaged about 0.6% a year in the 400 years before the Industrial Revolution and about 3% after it.
Inflation fears are on everyone's lips, the anchor said. Wood said productivity will push inflation and oil prices down, and that because this technology cycle involves far more inventions than the last one, a 2.5-fold jump from 3% growth is the cautious case.
"So I actually think that 7% is going to look conservative in hindsight."
Cathie Wood, founder, CEO and CIO of Ark Invest, on CNBC's Squawk Box. She set out the forecast in a letter to Ark's investors earlier in the week, built on historical growth figures compiled by the firm's chief futurist, Brett Winton.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 4 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
Real global growth north of 7% over the next 3 to 5 years, which she thinks will prove conservative
About 0.6% before the Industrial Revolution, about 3% after it
Oil prices will fall sharply as transportation moves onto the electric grid, she said
Transportation accounts for 57% of oil consumption, she said
An inverted yield curve need not mean recession: in the 50 years to 1929 it was inverted more than 60% of the time
Growth, not tax increases, will take care of the debt, the same outcome she saw under Reaganomics
1. Growth North of 7%
The anchor opened with a summary of Wood's letter: the US economy has kept growing through rising interest rates, inverted yield curves, tariffs, a government shutdown and wars, and she expects it to keep doing so with AI added, a change that could rival the Industrial Revolution. Wood agreed and said Ark's forecast starts from that comparison.
Global growth rose fivefold with the last technology revolution
"Real GDP growth globally was about 0.6%. And then with the Industrial Revolution, which was the last technology revolution, effectively we moved up to 3%." — Cathie Wood
The figures come from work by Brett Winton, Ark's chief futurist, she said.
Ark expects more than twice today's growth rate
"We think that during the next 3 to 5 years, we will be seeing regularly and perhaps on average, growth north of 7%." — Cathie Wood
"And that is just a two and a half fold increase, despite the fact that we have so much more technology evolving today than we did back then." — Cathie Wood
Five technologies now, against three then
The Industrial Revolution ran on electricity, the telephone and the internal combustion engine, Wood said.
"Now we've got AI, importantly, robotics, energy storage, blockchain technology, and multi-omics sequencing in the life science space." — Cathie Wood
Because so much more technology is moving so much faster, she said she thinks 7% will look conservative in hindsight.
