Merryn Talks Money · Oct 12, 2026
With Adam Rozencwajg, co-founder and portfolio manager, Goehring & Rozencwajg
Photo via The Wall Street Transcript
Gold is down roughly 20% from its highs this year, and before it sets a new one, Adam Rozencwajg thinks it could fall another 20 to 25%.
Most investors are reading that pullback as the end of the gold trade; Adam Rozencwajg, co-founder and portfolio manager at Goehring & Rozencwajg, told Merryn Somerset Webb on Merryn Talks Money that it is the opposite — a pause inside a commodity bull market he thinks is still near its beginning.
"I don't think that the gold bull market is over. I think that we're going to make new highs this cycle."
Adam has run a natural resource equities strategy for about 20 years, missed the top of the last commodity cycle by calling it too early back in 2012, and in January correctly predicted the Fed would hike rates rather than cut them — a call that cost him plenty of pushback at the time and looks right now that the hikes have started.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 6 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
Gold could fall another 20-25% before eventually doubling to $10,000 an ounce, his own long-term target for the metal
He still thinks the broader gold bull market is not over and will make new highs this cycle
The lag between a commodity price spike and new supply is now 10 to 15 years, and stretching
A new mine now often needs a five-year environmental baseline survey before anything gets built
His firm cut gold mining stocks from 30% of the portfolio to 5% after a January silver "catch-up" rally flashed what his partner treats as a sell signal
The Strait of Hormuz closure has shut in 10 million barrels a day of oil for 215 days and counting — more than twice as long as his firm first modeled
Six million barrels a day of the "drop in oil demand" is really lost refining capacity, taken out in Russia, the Persian Gulf and China, not weaker consumption
He is staying away from publicly traded small modular reactor stocks, which he says are priced for revenue that will not show up until the 2030s
1. The 2012 Blind Spot
Rozencwajg said his firm's entire framework for reading commodity cycles traces back to a mistake made 15 years ago, when a strong run in resource stocks looked to many like the top of a bubble.
He once argued no bubble could burst at ten times earnings
"I think I wrote with the hubris of a 20-something back then that perhaps this is the end of a bubble, but I've never seen a bubble burst at 10 times earnings." — Adam Rozencwajg
The real miss was a capital cycle, not a valuation call
"We had had a huge capital investment cycle that really started in the early 2000s and probably hit its crescendo sometime around 2010 or 2011. And that was about to bring online a tremendous amount of new supply." — Adam Rozencwajg
That supply arrived from Australian iron ore, Indonesian coal and, above all, American shale, and it was enough to tip cheap-looking stocks into an eight-year bear market.
