MRKT Call · Oct 1, 2026 · 47m · 32m saved
With Katie Stockton, Founder of Fairlead Strategies · Danny Moses, Founder of Moses Ventures
Goldman Sachs is down 21% and Bank of America 17% from record highs set only recently, and technician Katie Stockton says banks arrive at earnings season so oversold that the setup favors a relief rally.
A falling stock usually draws short sellers. On this panel the argument ran the other way: both guests said the bigger risk in banks and in the alternative asset managers that now do much of the lending is being short them, even as rising rates squeeze their business.
"I also want to note, I'm not short these names, and I wouldn't be short these names, for a few reasons." — Danny Moses
Stockton founded the technical-research firm Fairlead Strategies, and Moses, founder of Moses Ventures and known for his role in The Big Short, joined MRKT Call's host live from the HOOD Summit to cover rates, banks, private credit, AI stocks and Micron's earnings, then took questions from the audience.
The full episode is covered here so you can skip it. 47 minutes of audio, 15 minutes of reading.
Here are the 16 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
Stockton calls the rise in yields a major, lasting breakout, but says the bond selloff looks overdone in the short run
Bank stocks head into earnings very oversold, a setup she says favors a relief rally
She would use that rally to exit rather than to add
Moses would not short the alternative asset managers, despite their exposure to private credit and software loans
He sees a pent-up wave of redemptions behind withdrawal limits
The S&P 500 is holding key support even with weak breadth, so Stockton keeps a bullish bias
She likes Alphabet, Nvidia and Meta's breakout, and Moses is a buyer of Alphabet on any dip
AI spending does not have to collapse to hurt stocks; it only has to grow more slowly, Moses said
Micron sits almost exactly between support and resistance going into its report
Stockton warns semiconductor indicators could point to a big correction later in Q4 or a down cycle in 2027
1. A Cooler PCE, Higher Yields
The host opened with that morning's PCE inflation report, which came in cooler than expected, yet the 10-year Treasury yield was up about three basis points to 5.26%.
Moses said he thought expectations were for 3.3% and the print came in at 3%, and that the government had changed how the figure is calculated, with a 0.2 to 0.3 point adjustment flagged the day before. The host said the odds of a rate hike at the late October Fed meeting, a few days before the midterm elections, had been about 70/30 in favor. Moses said they had fallen to about 35% for a quarter-point hike and 65% for no change.
Moses said changing course on one data point could push long-term yields higher
If the Fed eases off hikes on the strength of one number, he said, long-term yields could rise because investors would doubt it is doing enough to stop inflation. Oil rising again that day was, in his view, the more direct cause of higher rates.
