WTFinance Sep 25, 2026 41m · 23m saved
With Clive Thompson, retired Managing Director in the Anglophone Private Clients Department of Union Bancaire Privée in Geneva
The 30-year US Treasury yield is back at a level last seen in 2001, and Clive Thompson said the government now owes far more relative to the size of the economy than it did then.
Rising interest rates are usually read as bad news for gold, which pays no interest. Thompson said the same rising yields will push the Federal Reserve into buying government bonds with newly created money, and that this is what sets up the next leg of the gold bull market.
"I'd be very surprised if the currencies we have today still exist in 10 years."
Clive Thompson, who spent 47 years in finance and wealth management and retired from Union Bancaire Privée in Geneva, where he ran wealth management for a small number of wealthy families, returned to WTFinance six months after his last interview. He told the podcast he personally lost money when Greek bondholders were forced to take losses.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 41 minutes of audio, 18 minutes of reading.
Here are the 15 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
US stocks trade at about 27 times earnings, against a normal 16 to 18 times
A stock-to-bond rotation would push yields up and force the Fed to intervene, which he called "extremely bullish" for gold and silver
30-year government bond yields are at 5-year highs in the US, Canada, Australia, Germany, France and Japan
France pays 5.2% for 30 years; Germany pays 3.845% in the same currency
He sees no way out of the debt problem, only a crisis whose timing nobody knows
China holds about 8% of its reserves in gold, so its record buying has a long way to run
Gold is forming the bottom of a saucer after falling to just below $4,000, and he expects the bull market to resume around December
A 60/20/20 portfolio, with 20% in gold, should replace the classic 60/40, with bonds kept to 1 to 3 years
He buys low strike reverse convertibles, which pay 7 or 8% in exchange for capped gains, as a bet that stocks go sideways
Copper is at a record, double its 2023 price, driven by the power lines being built to data centers
$5T of AI spending by 2030 cannot earn an adequate return, even on generous revenue assumptions
1. Stocks at 27 Times Earnings
Asked for his broad view, Thompson said the biggest worry is whether stocks crash. US stocks trade at about 27 times earnings, he said, against a normalized ratio of 17 or 18 times, or 16 times over a longer history.
Valuations are high but short of 1999
"It's a fact that price earnings ratios are at very high levels. They're not at the extreme levels we saw in 1999, but they are unusually high." — Clive Thompson
He said high valuations do not by themselves cause a crash, but they point to lower future returns. With bond yields rising around the world, bonds are becoming more attractive as stocks become less so, and he sees the possibility of money leaving the stock market for the bond market.
A rotation into bonds ends with the Fed stepping in
"And that of course would push up bond yields and that would as a consequence cause the probability of the Federal Reserve or the Treasury trying to intervene in the bond market to suppress yields. That would be extremely bullish for gold and silver." — Clive Thompson
