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Heritage Capital president on narrow rallies: 1998's ran "almost a full 22 months"

6 calls: Why rising yields, not AI, pushed utilities and banks down, when he expects small caps to rally, and his cases for SLB, McCormick and a hedged bitcoin ETF

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Oct 12, 2026
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Fox Business Clips · Oct 10, 2026

With Paul Schatz, Founder and President of Heritage Capital

Heritage Capital president on narrow rallies: 1998's ran "almost a full 22 months"

The bull market is in its fourth year, and Paul Schatz said his own stock screens are turning up few stocks that are taking part in it.

Stocks have pulled back from record highs as Treasury yields jumped, and the gains had been concentrated in a small group of stocks. Paul said that split is not a bubble like 1999's. He blamed rising Treasury yields, and said the laggards will catch up once yields stop climbing.

"The difference now is that you have yields going up — small caps and mid-caps struggle with higher yields, and they're going to at least short-term peak, and then the smalls will rally, the mids will rally" — Paul Schatz

Paul Schatz, founder and president of Heritage Capital, on Fox Business's Making Money, runs his own scans and screens for new sectors and stocks, and said his firm turned bullish on bitcoin after he warned last year that it could fall by as much as three-quarters.

The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.

Here are the 6 calls that matter.


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Key Takeaways

  • Few stocks are taking part in the rally, by Paul's own screens

  • This is not the dot-com bubble, but the narrow market that began in May 1998 lasted almost 22 months

  • Rising yields, not AI, pushed utilities and banks down

    • He expects bank stocks to recover, maybe into the first quarter

  • SLB can do well whether crude rises or falls, in his view

  • McCormick's fall is about the debt from its Unilever deal, which he called a short-term story

1. A Have-and-Have-Not Market

The show's host opened by saying the gap between the equal-weighted S&P 500 and the market-cap-weighted index is the widest in decades, and that the lag is not limited to small caps.

Momentum is driving a market with few winners

Paul said momentum is a huge factor in a bull market's fourth year. What is happening fits the pattern of past bull markets, he said, but to a much larger degree. He described it as a "have and have not" market. When he runs his scans for new sectors and new stocks, few stocks show up as participating.

Laggards could bounce after tax-loss selling, even without lower rates

Many lagging stocks will be sold further this quarter by investors booking losses for tax purposes, he said, and they could bounce afterward without rates coming down. Asked whether that trade appealed to him, he said the short term "is enticing because momentum will rule."

2. Yields Hold Back Small Caps

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