Bloomberg Businessweek · Sep 28, 2026
With Patrick Murphy, Executive Director, Geopolitical Advisory at Hilco Global, former Acting Secretary of the Army
A deal with Iran that reopens the Strait of Hormuz is still several months away, Patrick Murphy said, with 33 days left before the US midterm elections.
Bloomberg reported that day that Iranian officials privately doubt a deal can happen before the midterms. Murphy said he agreed, and that the cost is already showing up for companies and households.
"But if you're asking my honest opinion, we're still several months away."
Patrick Murphy, Executive Director, Geopolitical Advisory at Hilco Global, on Bloomberg Businessweek, was Acting Secretary of the Army under President Obama, served in Iraq and spent four years in Congress from Pennsylvania. He now advises boards and senior executives on geopolitical risk.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 4 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
No Iran deal before the midterms, and he hopes for one before the end of the year
Geopolitics is now "baked into the balance sheets" through energy prices, shipping costs and tariffs
Electricity prices are up 18% in two years, he said, and Washington has not noticed
Permits take 4 years for a transmission line and 10 years if it crosses state lines
Private capital is following government money into chips and defense, as it did after the CHIPS Act
1. No Deal Before the Midterms
Asked whether a deal before the midterms is on the table, Murphy said Iran's latest proposal, a seven-day roadmap similar to an agreement from a few months ago, fell apart almost immediately.
"I don't see this happening." — Patrick Murphy
He listed the costs of the conflict so far: the largest buildup of US forces, higher gasoline and diesel prices, and American casualties.
"As you and Tim know, Carol, we lost 18 American service members." — Patrick Murphy
"I mean, just 20% of the world's oil comes from the Strait of Hormuz and people hurting out there." — Patrick Murphy
The hosts said polls and prediction markets are shifting ahead of the midterms, and asked when the Strait could return to normal. Murphy, who served in Iraq more than 20 years ago, said Iran is prepared to wait rather than accept terms it does not want.
"And giving them more power now in the Strait of Hormuz is not good for anybody." — Patrick Murphy
"So I am hopeful that it's before the end of this year." — Patrick Murphy
"But if you're asking my honest opinion, we're still several months away." — Patrick Murphy
