Wealthion · Oct 14, 2026 · 37m · 29m saved
With Nick Gerli, Founder of Reventure Consulting
Annualized US home sales fell below 4 million in August 2026, roughly where they stood in 2009.
Nick Gerli, a housing analyst and founder of Reventure Consulting, told Maggie Lake on Wealthion that this downturn does not look like 2008 from the national numbers alone. There has been no broad national price drop yet. Instead the market has split by region, with prices still rising in suburban New Jersey and falling in Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona and Colorado.
"Housing is now in a multi-year recession... when adjusting for the size of the housing stock, demand today is the lowest it's been in 40 years." — Nick Gerli
Nick tracks local housing data for a living, and his travels for Reventure keep turning up sellers who are underwater on homes bought three or four years ago. Earlier in 2026 he bought a house himself at a 35% discount to its 2023 sale price.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 37 minutes of audio, 8 minutes of reading.
Here are the 9 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
US buyer demand is the lowest in 40 years once adjusted for the size of the housing stock
The national housing shortage is regional: real in New Jersey, absent in Nashville, where inventory is at a record
Austin is down 27% in value, the biggest housing bust in the US in Nick's view
High prices, not mortgage rates, are what keep buyers out
The typical payment takes close to 40% of gross household income
Demand would need mortgage rates near 5% and a further 20% price drop to recover
Multifamily delinquencies at Fannie and Freddie already match 2009 levels with unemployment at 4%
Nick does not expect a banking crisis this time because single-family mortgage quality is better
1. Demand at a 40-Year Low
Nick described US housing as being in a "multi-year recession." The number of buyers has dropped to levels last seen during the Great Financial Crisis.
Annual US home sales are back at 2009 levels
"The number of people buying homes in the US just fell below 4 million annualized in August 2026. That's roughly at 2009 levels of sales." — Nick Gerli
He put the cause on two things at once: prices that are still high, and mortgage rates back above 7%. Unlike 2008 and 2009, prices have not yet fallen across the country. They are falling in specific states, among them Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona and Colorado. In those places Nick is meeting owners who are underwater and selling at a loss on homes they bought three or four years ago.
