Real Vision · Oct 4, 2026 · 19m · 11m saved
With Ben Cowen, Founder of Into The Cryptoverse
Bitcoin is only a few percent below its yearly open in a midterm year, Ben Cowen said, when the average midterm year would have it about 50% down by now.
Cowen had expected Bitcoin to fall to a new four-year cycle low later this year. Instead it took out its May high and broke above its 50-week moving average, and he said he was wrong.
"And normally I find it better to just face it head-on than to pretend like, you know, that I wasn't wrong." — Ben Cowen
Ben Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, on Real Vision, publishes a long-running video series on Bitcoin's cycles and had just recorded a video conceding the call when he returned from vacation. In this interview he explained what changed and how he now expects the rest of the year to go.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 19 minutes of audio, 8 minutes of reading.
Here are the 8 calls that matter.
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Key Takeaways
Cowen said he was wrong that Bitcoin would not take out its May high this year
An apathetic 2025 top left fewer buyers to panic out, so this midterm year is holding up best by far
A higher high shifts the burden of proof from the bulls to the bears
The four-year cycle low may have come in July, the earliest on record
Any pullback would more likely make a higher low than a new low
Measured against the 2-year yield, Fed policy has been accommodative since earlier this year
His biggest regret is buying Bitcoin for only about 5 days under his own rules
1. Facing the Music
The host said Cowen's latest video was probably not the one he expected to make when he got back from vacation. Cowen said he had not expected Bitcoin to take out its May high, at least not this year.
He said he would rather admit the call was wrong than explain it away
"I got to face the music on this." — Ben Cowen
The host said he had also been caught by surprise and wanted to focus on where the market is now.
