Merryn Talks Money · Sep 27, 2026 · 36m · 22m saved
With Stephen Yiu, Chief Investment Officer of the Blue Whale Growth Fund
Stephen Yiu said the biggest threat to Nvidia is not Broadcom and not China, but quantum computing, because a working quantum computer would not need graphics processors.
Most debate about an AI bust is about valuations. Yiu said SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are in a valuation bubble, while Nvidia, at about 16 to 17 times earnings, is exposed to an earnings bubble that would take a coordinated pullback by every AI spender to burst.
"Nothing major is going to change in the next 18 months."
Stephen Yiu, Chief Investment Officer of the Blue Whale Growth Fund, on Merryn Talks Money. The fund manages more than $4 billion and, according to the host, returned over 320% from its launch in September 2017 to the end of August, against just under 130% for its benchmark. He runs about 30 high-conviction holdings on a global mandate.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 36 minutes of audio, 14 minutes of reading.
Here are the 14 arguments that matter.
Key Takeaways
National AI regulation is "probably not going to work", because AI is a global competition
SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are in a valuation bubble; Nvidia is not
Nvidia trades at about 16 to 17 times earnings, he said
An earnings bubble is harder to burst than a valuation bubble, since every AI spender would have to stop at once
The Magnificent Seven's combined revenue is about $3 trillion, similar to the UK economy, he said
His hedges outside AI are European defense, Canadian Natural Resources and Newmont
Newmont makes money even if gold stays flat, which a gold fund does not
Refinery shortages mean consumers will pay more for longer, even if crude falls
Quantum computing, not a rival chipmaker, is the biggest risk to Nvidia
Taiwan is the risk he cannot model, and one that would bring the world to a halt
1. Regulation Can't Keep Pace
The host asked why so much of the talk about AI is now about its dangers. Yiu said AI has moved on an exponential path, so everyone feels part of it whether or not they have invested. When a technology moves that fast without guardrails, he said, trouble can follow, and policy is still well behind.
Policy will take longer than the technology
"There's been a narrative to suggest that we're going to see a lost generation." — Stephen Yiu
By that he meant it may take longer than expected before there are public rules that let society use and control AI.
The host said regulating AI is a global problem: rules in the UK, the EU or the US alone cannot control it.
"It's probably not going to work. This is a competition. It's not going to work." — Stephen Yiu
