CNBC Television · Sep 28, 2026
With Michael Contopoulos, Head of Multi-Asset Macro Investing at Janus Henderson Investors
Jobless claims are at their lowest since the 1960s and nominal growth is running at 7 to 8%, Michael Contopoulos said, as interest rates rose sharply in a short time.
The question put to him was whether strength in AI is covering up weakness in the rest of the economy. He said the strength is broader than AI, and that earnings growth at the hyperscalers, the largest cloud and AI spenders, is slowing toward the rest of the market, which is speeding up.
"That's a pretty healthy economy that transcends just AI spend."
Michael Contopoulos, head of multi-asset macro investing at Janus Henderson Investors, on CNBC Television, said he thinks the market is closer to its top and the cycle closer to its end, but that he cannot say whether that is three months or a year away.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 3 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
The economy's strength goes beyond AI spending, with jobless claims at their lowest since the 1960s
Hyperscaler earnings growth is slowing while earnings growth across the rest of the market speeds up
Most AI debt sold in the past 6 to 12 months is now underwater for buyers at issue
The market is closer to its top, but Contopoulos said the end could be 3 months or 12 months away
Rising yields around the world make it harder for US Treasury yields to fall
1. Strength Beyond AI
The segment opened on the recent rise in rates. The host asked whether investors should be alarmed, and whether strength in AI is papering over weakness in the economy.
Earnings outside the hyperscalers are accelerating
"I think the strength is likely greater than just the strength in AI." — Michael Contopoulos
He said earnings growth at individual companies is accelerating, while growth at the hyperscalers is slowing to match it.
"If you actually look at, you know, the hyperscalers earnings growth, the earnings growth itself is declining, is actually coming into line with the rest of the market that's accelerating." — Michael Contopoulos
He said this does not dismiss the K-shaped economy, in which higher earners do well while lower earners fall behind.
"This is not to belittle the fact that there are many who are struggling with higher inflation and the cost of living. That is all true." — Michael Contopoulos
Companies are healthy and the market is broadening
At the corporate level, he said, companies are quite healthy. The market has been narrow for the last few weeks, but he sees some broadening.
"You're seeing internationals start to do pretty well relative to the United States over the last 12 to 18 months. That's all very healthy." — Michael Contopoulos
Labor data and nominal growth point to a healthy economy
Unemployment is the lowest in quite some time, if not ever, he said.
"You have jobless claims, the lowest since the 1960s. Nominal humming along at 7 to 8%. That's a pretty healthy economy that transcends just AI spend." — Michael Contopoulos
