Market Matters with Marley Kayden · Nov 9, 2026 · 43m · 36m saved
With Luana Lopes Lara, Co-Founder and COO of Kalshi
Kalshi spent four years winning approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), after being told its odds of federal oversight were under 1%. Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder and COO of Kalshi, told Marley Kayden on Market Matters that the exchange now trades more than $25 billion of contracts a week.
The faster route was to launch offshore, as a Panama-based operation that no one could verify. Luana and her co-founder, Tarek Mansour, chose a federal regulator instead, because they wanted to run a real financial exchange.
"If Americans have the choice between regulated and unregulated, they will pick the regulated if the products are similar and allowed to operate and compete." — Luana Lopes Lara
Luana and Tarek met the problem Kalshi solves while working at Goldman Sachs, Bridgewater and the trading firm Five Rings Capital. They were 22 when the approval fight began, and the company later sued its own regulator and won.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 43 minutes of audio, 7 minutes of reading.
Here are the 9 takeaways that matter.
Key Takeaways
Kalshi earns a fee on each matched trade and never bets against its users, unlike a sportsbook
A Federal Reserve paper found Kalshi's markets forecast the economy better than experts
War, terrorism and assassination markets will never be listed on Kalshi
Whoever deploys an AI agent on Kalshi is responsible for everything it does
Perpetual futures come next, so traders can bet on direction without a yes-or-no cutoff
The CFTC route took 4 years, and Luana says Americans will pick a regulated market
Kalshi now trades over $25B of volume a week
1. A Contract Priced Like Odds
Luana opened with the mechanics. A Kalshi contract pays out if an event happens, and its price reads as the market's estimate of the probability.
A Kalshi contract trades like a probability that can be sold at any time
"If you think there is a 40% chance that it will rain tomorrow... you should be willing to buy yes at 40 cents... The big difference here is that you're able to sell whenever you want." — Luana Lopes Lara
A trader who buys yes at 40 cents is paying for a 40% view. Unlike a ticket held to the end, the position can be closed before the event settles.
Money at stake turns the price into a forecast
"If I ask the person, is it going to rain tomorrow, they're going to say yes... But if I say I'll give you $1,000 if you're right, you're going to go do way more research... that one number where people are trading becomes the best real-time forecast." — Luana Lopes Lara
That is why prediction markets are also called information markets. A cash reward pushes traders to research the question before they put a price on it.
