Closing Bell · Oct 7, 2026
With Henry McVey, Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation at KKR
Henry McVey said 65% of Europe's trade is now within Europe, and that the share is probably heading to 70% to 75% as companies pull back from parts of China.
Most investors are worried about higher interest rates. McVey said they should measure rates against nominal GDP growth, because corporate profits across KKR's roughly 200 portfolio companies are strong and productivity is coming through.
"So to me, my one thing I would caution investors, everybody is running around worried about higher rates right now." — Henry McVey
Henry McVey, head of global macro and asset allocation at KKR, on CNBC's Closing Bell Overtime. He was publishing a report on the global investment cycle after a trip to London and Singapore, where he spent time with KKR's teams across Asia and with chief executives.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 4 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
Business investment is beating consumer spending, in the UK, Germany and across Asia
Europe's share of trade within the region is set to rise from 65% to 70–75%, McVey said
Korea is the big surprise, with corporate reform spreading there from Japan
Higher rates matter less when nominal GDP is growing, and companies that can pass on costs win
The bond market's hot spots are government debt in France, the US and the UK, not companies
1. Capex Over Consumption
The host said McVey has argued since January that the world is in a new regime of heavy investment, redundant supply chains, rearmament and deglobalization, and asked what reinforced that view on his trip.
In Europe, companies are investing even as consumers pull back
"So first was in London and Europe, and what you see is actually business fixed investment in the UK is going up even though consumption is trending down." — Henry McVey
Germany is trading much more with Eastern Europe, he said, and its exports are moving away from China, all driven by business investment.
"So think about capex over consumption headed to Singapore after that." — Henry McVey
Asia has a similar boom in trade within the region
In Singapore he met KKR's teams from across Asia, chief executives and economists. He said Asia has a similar boom built on trade within Asia and a huge build-out of the supply chain for redundancy.
"And then AI is clearly having kind of the exclamation point on top." — Henry McVey
US investors are starting to return to Asia
Most US investors have been overweight the US, he said, which was the right call, and they are starting to come back to Asia. Corporate reform in Japan, which KKR has focused on for some time, is spreading to Korea and Singapore. Rising consumption in Southeast Asia and India is another green light.
Private equity, infrastructure and private credit all benefit
He said KKR's infrastructure business in the region is booming. He also sees more lending moving away from banks to bond markets and private credit.
