The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence · Sep 24, 2026 · 53m · 35m saved
With Austin Camporin, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Special Situations at Magnetar Capital
Corporate debt yielding 10% or more grew from about $400 billion to about $600 billion over the past year, Austin Camporin said, and very little of it is being dealt with.
Stock markets keep rising and credit spreads keep tightening, and outside a small slice of CCC-rated debt nobody seems worried. Camporin said the stress is real, and that it sits underneath the index: in the lowest single-B loans, in small companies bought out when rates were zero, and in the loans many large managers are barred from buying.
"But the upshot is supply up, demand down."
Austin Camporin, senior portfolio manager and head of special situations at Magnetar Capital, on The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence. He spent 16 years at Elliott Management, most recently as a portfolio manager, after starting at J.P. Morgan in high-yield credit research and then its distressed debt proprietary trading group.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 53 minutes of audio, 18 minutes of reading.
Here are the 22 insights that matter.
Key Takeaways
Stressed debt grew to about $600 billion while the pool of buyers shrank
About $1 trillion of high-yield debt comes due through 2029, and roughly half is rated B3 or lower
CCC debt trades at about 4 times single-B spreads, against an average of about 3 times over 15 years
Lenders inside a restructuring group recover about 10 points more than those outside it
A 4% or 5% stake in a loan tranche is usually enough for a seat at the table, he said
Disqualified-lender lists keep many large managers out of the loans altogether
About $150 billion of debt that has already been restructured once matures over the next four or five years
A 100 basis point move in rates will not save these companies, because owners are so far out of the money
He hedges with long-dated investment-grade bonds trading near 15-year tights
1. Supply Up, Demand Down
James Crombie, a senior editor at Bloomberg, opened with the paradox: rates are rising, the economy shows cracks, a maturity wall is approaching, and commodity prices, trade wars and the midterms add risk, yet stocks keep rising, spreads keep tightening and nobody outside a small chunk of CCC debt is worried.
The stress is real, and two forces are moving apart
"And it's fascinating because you really have two factors moving in opposite directions, kind of like a scissor." — Austin Camporin
On one side, the stressed debt universe, which he defines as everything yielding 10% or more, grew from about $400 billion to about $600 billion over the last year, and it is not being dealt with. On the other, the buyer base is thinning.
"But the upshot is supply up, demand down." — Austin Camporin
