Bloomberg Talks · Oct 24, 2026
With Tarek Mansour, CEO and co-founder, Kalshi
Kalshi's trading volume is annualizing near $1 trillion. More than half of that comes from prediction markets, said Tarek Mansour, chief executive and co-founder of the exchange. Most of Washington is still arguing over whether to ban the category outright. Tarek wants Congress to write rules for it instead.
"We're a pro-regulation company."
Tarek built Kalshi into a company reportedly valued at $40 billion with trading volume approaching $1 trillion a year, giving him a stake on both sides of the fight: shaping the rules lawmakers write and defending the business in court.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 4 takeaways that matter.
Key Takeaways
2026 is "the first prediction market election," Tarek says, as campaigns lean on market prices the way they used to lean on polling
Kalshi calls itself "pro-regulation," backing rules against markets that "shouldn't exist," insider trading and sitting members of Congress trading on its platforms
On sports-contract litigation headed toward the Supreme Court, Tarek's line is whether a trader is betting against "the house" or trading in an open market
Commodities is Kalshi's fastest-growing product line, with new pushes into inflation and compute futures
Retail traders, which Tarek calls "Kalshi Street," are beating Wall Street at predicting outcomes including inflation
Kalshi's annualized trading volume is near $1 trillion, with more than half of it coming from prediction-market contracts
Tarek declined to discuss IPO timing despite a reported $40 billion valuation
1. First prediction election
Tarek told Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall that the 2026 midterms are different from past cycles because campaigns have started treating Kalshi's market prices as a data source alongside, or instead of, traditional polling.
2026 is "the first prediction market election," Tarek says, as campaigns lean on market prices over polling
"We're very excited because it really feels like this is the first prediction market election." — Tarek Mansour
He said that shift is new to this cycle. Earlier elections treated prediction markets mainly as a curiosity; this one has campaigns checking Kalshi's odds the way they would check a poll.
