Fox Business · Sep 28, 2026
With Thomas Hayes, Chairman at Great Hill Capital
Stock indices sit a few points below their all-time highs, but Thomas Hayes said 53% of S&P 500 companies are trading below both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Most coverage points to the record highs. Hayes said five or 10 AI stocks are holding the indices up, and the rest of the market will only join in if a deal with Iran brings down oil prices and inflation expectations.
"So there's a lot of weakness underneath the surface."
Thomas Hayes, Chairman at Great Hill Capital, on Fox Business. He founded the firm, a New York-based equity manager with more than $1 billion in regulatory assets under management, and said it looks for bargains where the downside is protected and the upside is material. He also warned that a Fed rate hike in October could push the US into recession.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 6 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
Five or 10 AI stocks are holding up indices near record highs
More than half of S&P 500 companies trade below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Market breadth is as narrow as it was in March 2000 and 2007
A Fed hike into an oil supply shock risks recession
The ECB raised rates in 2011 and had to reverse within four months
Core CPI is at its lowest level in 6 years, he said, which makes the Fed look impatient
Staples, healthcare and bonds are the most out-of-favor groups since the 2000 tech peak
The AI build-out depends on debt, and data center bonds are already falling
1. A Tale of Two Cities
The anchor opened with Nvidia, which rose more than 2% after announcing a $150 billion share buyback and has the world's largest market value at $5.5 trillion, yet could not lift the Dow into positive territory. She asked what that says about the market.
A handful of AI stocks are holding the indices up
"This is a tale of two cities" — Thomas Hayes
"You have the markets at the indices at near all-time highs, a few points below all-time highs, but it's really being held up by five or 10 stocks, these AI stocks that you're referencing." — Thomas Hayes
Underneath, he said, the median S&P 500 stock is down 16%, and 53% of the index's companies are below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
"So there's a lot of weakness underneath the surface." — Thomas Hayes
The rest of the market is being held down
"I liken this to holding a beach ball under the water." — Thomas Hayes
He said that if talks with Iran bring oil prices down, the roughly 95% of the market that has not participated could rise sharply as expectations for inflation and rate hikes fall. For now, he said, breadth is as narrow as it was in March 2000 and in 2007, which is unhealthy. More stocks have to participate, and the only way that happens is for inflation expectations to come down, which requires progress with Iran.
