Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management, said on Market Talk with George Noble that he expects CoreWeave and most other AI cloud providers to go bankrupt.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has publicly defended CoreWeave's credit, and retail investors bought a record amount of its stock after the shares fell. Michael Kramer said the only way out for the company is a rescue sale far below the current price.
"I fully expect CoreWeave is going to go bankrupt, as will most of the other Neoclouds. The only way they're not going to go bankrupt, in my opinion, will be through a take-under... maybe Nvidia takes out CoreWeave at $2 a share, a la Bear Stearns." — Michael Kramer
Michael Kramer trades only on relative strength and has been short Tesla since December. He was joined by Michael Kantrowitz, who sets market strategy for Piper Sandler, and Dave Nicoski, co-founder of Vermilion Research, whose quant model scores stocks on value, profitability and earnings revisions.
The full episode is covered here so you can skip it. 85 minutes of audio, 11 minutes of reading.
Here are the 12 calls that matter.
Market Talk with George Noble · Oct 24, 2026 · 1h 25m · 74m saved
With Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler · Michael Kramer, Founder of Mott Capital Management · Dave Nicoski, Co-Founder of Vermilion Research
Key Takeaways
The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 75bps on a day the cap-weighted index fell 1.2%, a rotation out of chip and tech stocks Michael Kantrowitz expects to continue
A stronger Korean won now moves with chip-stock volatility, after years in which the won and the Kospi moved in opposite directions
The 30-year TIPS yield rose from 2.44% in March to 3.16%, driven by real yields, not inflation expectations
Michael Kramer expects CoreWeave to go bankrupt unless a buyer such as Nvidia rescues it at a fraction of the price
CoreWeave insiders are selling, and Magnetar Capital has sold its entire stake
Dave's model now values stocks on free-cash-flow yield, not earnings yield, which favors Nvidia, Apple, Google and Microsoft
SpaceX scores 10 of 10 on profitability but 1 on earnings revisions, and sits in the model's sell bucket
Tech stocks already price 45% annual earnings growth for 5 years, and another broad rally of riskier stocks would need 60–80%
1. Bonds Rally on Europe Fear
Michael Kantrowitz opened on the size of the prior day's rally in US Treasuries, which surprised him.
Michael Kantrowitz tied the Treasury rally to widening credit spreads in Europe
"That looked like an escape from Europe type of move, like everyone flee... credit spreads are really starting to widen out. I usually watch the Italian-German spread pretty closely." — Michael Kantrowitz
The Italian-German spread is the extra yield Italy pays over Germany to borrow, a common gauge of stress in the euro area. Michael Kantrowitz also pointed to political trouble in France. Investors leaving European debt bought Treasuries instead.
The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose while the cap-weighted index fell 1.2% on the same day
"The S&P is a tale of two markets. You have the RSP which finished the day up 75 basis points, and you had the SPY which finished the day down 1.2%... it's the rotation out of semis and technology back into everything else." — Michael Kantrowitz
RSP is an exchange-traded fund that holds every S&P 500 stock in equal weight, while SPY weights them by market value. The gap means the largest chip and tech companies fell while the typical stock rose. Michael Kantrowitz expects that rotation to continue.
