Top Traders Unplugged · Oct 31, 2026 · 1h 6m · 56m saved
With Alan Dunne, Founder and CEO of Archive Capital Advisors
Photo via archivecapitaladvisors.com
In 1987, 10-year Treasury yields rose from 7% to 10% while stocks rallied 35% and then crashed. Alan Dunne, founder and CEO of Archive Capital Advisors, told Top Traders Unplugged that bonds and stocks moved in opposite directions in that selloff, and a 60/40 portfolio still took a large loss.
Much of the debate over the 60/40 portfolio, 60% stocks and 40% bonds, turns on whether stocks and bonds move together or apart. Alan thinks that number alone settles very little.
"Bond yields went from 7% to 10%. The equity market went up 35% between January and August... negative correlation by itself isn't enough to prepare a portfolio." — Alan Dunne
Alan runs Archive Capital Advisors in Dublin and is a regular co-host of the show's Systematic Investor series, where he and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen review trend-following managers and the macro backdrop each week.
The full episode is covered here so you can skip it. 66 minutes of audio, 10 minutes of reading.
Here are the 11 arguments that matter.
Key Takeaways
A credit fund that raised about $7.5B in a short span is now down 22–25% on the year
Alan calls the Fed's "new monetary medicine" a label on a small set of moves
High debt makes an AI bust riskier than 2000, because recessions always push debt higher
Stocks and bonds moving in opposite directions did not protect 60/40 in 1987
Alan holds fewer core bonds and adds trend and macro strategies that trade bonds actively
Missing an AI-driven melt-up is a portfolio risk too, not only a crash
A resilient portfolio can compound faster over time, because it avoids the worst drawdowns
1. A Credit Star's Reversal
Alan opened with a warning from credit markets. Arini Capital Management, the hedge fund founded by Hamza Lemssouguer, formerly Credit Suisse's head of high-yield trading, raised money fast on strong early returns.
Arini raised about $7.5 billion quickly and became the name everyone in credit discussed
"The last few years, when you talk to people about credit, the one name that kept coming up time and time again was this hedge fund, Arini Capital, which had posted very strong returns for a period of time... I think 7.5 billion in a very short period of time." — Alan Dunne
"Fast forward to this year... the same fund is now down something like 22 or 25% on the year, which is quite substantial by any measure, particularly in the credit markets." — Alan Dunne
Alan reads it two ways. It is a lesson in choosing managers, and it is an early sign of stress spreading through high-yield credit.
