Inside Prediction Markets · Sep 30, 2026 · 35m · 21m saved
Novig, a sports prediction-market exchange, traded $100M in a single day on an NFL Sunday, according to the hosts of Inside Prediction Markets, and its share of the industry's volume has been growing faster than the industry.
On Kalshi, one host said, a trader who takes liquidity pays what he called a 7% fee, so a large resting order there mostly meets recreational money. On a zero-fee exchange, the hosts said, anyone who disagrees with the price can take the whole order, which is why they see much bigger blocks change hands on Novig.
"So if I disagree with the number, I can just scoop you all up."
The two hosts trade their own book on prediction markets and had no guest this week. Inside Prediction Markets is published from Novig's podcast account, and the hosts called themselves big fans of the exchange. In this episode they covered three industry stories, the trade in NFL survivor-pool entries, and their read on the season three weeks in.
The full episode is covered here so you can skip it. 35 minutes of audio, 14 minutes of reading.
Here are the 11 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
The No. 1 public account on Kalshi's leaderboard had his first losing month, which the hosts read as a sign that NFL markets are getting more competitive
Better software is letting automated traders catch up with manual ones
Kalshi wants margin trading on long-dated contracts, but prices can still collapse in hours
Capital rules for multi-leg bets far exceed the real risk, in the hosts' own book
A loss of 10% to 15% is a one-in-50,000 event
Novig's share of prediction-market volume is growing faster than the market
Zero fees bring out big blocks: the hosts have seen quarter-million-dollar orders at a half-cent tick on NFL money lines
Survivor-pool entries traded above fair value early, because players who lose in week 1 overpay to get back in
Late in the season the value should swing to buyers
Prediction markets will be used to hedge multi-million-dollar survivor entries, and that flow could move NFL prices
Lopsided recreational money on the Eagles left the hosts breaking even, on a trade they expected to win
1. A Top Trader's First Loss
Shane Sigsbee's losing month
The hosts opened with Shane Sigsbee, a trader they called the No. 1 public account on Kalshi's leaderboard, who posted that September was his first losing month. He posted it with days left, including an NFL Sunday, so he did not expect to recover, they said. One host said it made him feel better about their own September, which they agreed could have been better for their own trading.
"Shane's a whale on the Kalshi leaderboard — one of the higher public accounts." — Inside Prediction Markets
One host said Sigsbee runs a decent-sized team with a fairly manual process, hires traders on Twitter, and aims for a delta-neutral, low-risk strategy, meaning his positions are hedged against the direction of the outcome. Football is competitive, accounts are fully funded and there are few clear pricing gaps, he said.
"It's warfare in the order book." — Inside Prediction Markets
Software is catching up with manual traders
The other host said more products are being built for prediction-market traders, and that competitors in Sigsbee's areas may now be doing programmatically what he did by hand.
"And so entrants that are investing in technology are going to start being able to catch up on some of the stuff where, when you go manual, you can beat the algo guys to the punch on things where the technology infrastructure doesn't exist yet." — Inside Prediction Markets
He recalled meeting Sigsbee at a Boston sports conference he thought was MIT Sloan more than a year ago. He was proud of his own volume, he said, and Sigsbee had done almost 10 times as much that year. Sigsbee has declined to come on the show.
Market makers had a good few weeks
NFL market makers are mostly exposed to popular bets such as parlays of favorites, the hosts said, which have generally gone against bettors and toward market makers, apart from week one, when star players scored and favorites won. They said Novig's featured parlays keep paying out.
"Every week it's a hundred-to-one cash." — Inside Prediction Markets
