MRKT Call · Sep 24, 2026 · 58m · 40m saved
With Dan Nathan, Principal at RiskReversal Advisors · Guy Adami, Director of Advisor Advocacy at Private Advisor Group
Oracle's credit default swaps, the market price of insuring its debt, hit a new high of 223 on the morning of this episode, Dan Nathan said, and CoreWeave's stood at 850, a level he compared with bank stocks before the financial crisis.
JPMorgan named CoreWeave its top pick in the sector that morning and the stock still fell. Nathan and Guy Adami read that, together with a force majeure claim over delays on an Oracle-linked data center project, as a sign that investors have stopped giving the AI build-out the benefit of the doubt.
"There's a lot of shell games going on here, people."
Dan Nathan, principal at RiskReversal Advisors, and Guy Adami, director of advisor advocacy at Private Advisor Group, on MRKT Call, the daily markets show of RiskReversal Media, which the two co-founded. Both are regulars on CNBC's Fast Money, and Adami had spent the previous day on a prediction-markets panel at Georgetown University.
The full episode is covered here so you can skip it. 58 minutes of audio, 18 minutes of reading.
Here are the 12 arguments that matter.
Key Takeaways
Oracle's credit default swaps hit a new high as a force majeure claim surfaced on an Oracle-linked data center project
Nathan put the build-out cost at about $50 billion per gigawatt
JPMorgan made CoreWeave its top pick and the stock fell anyway, which both hosts read as a warning
Neocloud contracts keep getting shorter, which Nathan said lets them book revenue without knowing long-term returns
xAI's compute deals with Anthropic and Google run three months and can be canceled
Adami said the math on AI capex does not work measured against what every person on the planet would have to spend
The 2-year yield rose from 4.2% to 4.9% this month, and Adami is mystified that stocks have not cared
Nathan expects Scott Bessent to be remembered as one of the worst Treasury secretaries, because he gave way where Kevin Warsh will not
Adami thinks crude goes higher from here and sees a chance of escalation with Iran after the midterms
US refineries run above 98% of capacity and the last major one was built 50 years ago
59% of analyst ratings on S&P 500 stocks are buys, the highest share since at least 2010
Wynn has a 100% buy rating and sits at a 52-week low
1. Memory Chips Near A Peak
Nathan opened the market talk with semiconductors. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF, which trades as SMH, was down nearly 2% and the Roundhill Memory ETF, ticker DRAM, was down 2.5%. He tied the move to Raspberry Pi, the UK computer maker and a buyer of memory, which had said memory prices were nearing a peak. For anyone wanting a view on memory pricing, the DRAM ETF is the way to express it, in his opinion.
Nathan is positioned for a 10% drop in memory stocks
He described his own trade: a put butterfly over the next two weeks, with strikes at 60, 55 and 50, bought for about a dollar. His break-even is 59, his maximum gain of $4 comes at 55, and the most he can lose is the dollar he paid. The trade isolates a fall back to where the ETF traded eight sessions earlier, before it took off. He said a 10% drop in a week "doesn't sound that unlikely."
On the chart, the pair pointed to an island reversal, a price gap on both sides of a short run of trading that often marks a top, that has not been violated since, and to room for a move back to the late-July, early-August low of about $44.50. The moves in the semiconductor names "defy logic at a certain point," one of them said, and the SMH chart looked similar to the DRAM chart.
