VRIC Media · Oct 18, 2026 · 31m · 24m saved
With Ted Oakley, CEO and Founder of Oxbow Advisors
Twenty or 30 companies, nearly all of them in one industry, now drive about half of the S&P 500's return. Ted Oakley, CEO and founder of Oxbow Advisors, told Daryl Thomas, host of VRIC Media, that the setup reminds him of 1999.
Most investors own that concentration through index funds and assume they are diversified. Ted has put Oxbow's two largest positions in energy and gold, which he says few investors hold.
"I think our main theme right now would be the fact that you've got a high concentration, maybe 20 or 30 companies, that are really running the market or pushing the indexes, and they're all in one industry — that's the problem." — Ted Oakley
Ted manages billions of dollars for clients at Oxbow and has a book for older investors, Asleep at the Wheel, due out in about two months.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 31 minutes of audio, 7 minutes of reading.
Here are the 7 takeaways that matter.
Key Takeaways
20 or 30 companies in one industry now drive the market, which Ted compares to the internet boom of 1999
A return to a normal 14 or 15 times earnings implies a 40% drop in the S&P 500, and 40 or 50% in a bear market
Energy is Oxbow's largest holding, and the best-returning asset this year that "nobody owns"
Central banks hold about 30% of reserves in gold, against about 70% at the peak
At 2011's cash flow multiples, large gold miners would triple
Ted won't own a 30-year Treasury and keeps bond maturities under 3 to 4 years
Investors over 65 hold too much stock for an age when they cannot go back to work
1. 20 Stocks, One Industry
Ted's main worry is concentration. Twenty to 30 companies tied to AI now drive about 50% of the S&P 500's return and an even larger share of its earnings.
Ted Oakley compares the AI boom to the internet boom of 1999
"That's a true statement. It reminds me really of 1999, where everybody wanted to get a piece of the internet. Anything with internet around it went up, and a lot of those companies ended up bankrupt three or four years later." — Ted Oakley
He accepts that AI is a real technology with a real future, as the internet was. His concern is the companies around it that will not survive once investors become realistic about what AI costs and what it pays back, as happened in the 2000 to 2002 shakeout.
