CNBC Television · Sep 28, 2026
With Scott Modell, CEO of Rapidan Energy, former CIA officer
The White House is "seriously considering" a ban on diesel exports, and Scott Modell said his firm saw this coming months before the president did.
Rapidan Energy priced a diesel export ban at 35% back in April and thought that number was already generous. Modell, a former CIA officer with five tours in the Middle East, said the White House's turn toward it now is less a fundamental judgment than a sign that other options have run out ahead of the midterms.
"We even thought that was high because from a very fundamental level we knew that Secretaries Blinken and Granholm ... have been against it from the start knowing that it would provide temporary relief at best."
Scott Modell, CEO of Rapidan Energy, on CNBC Television's Squawk on the Street, said the ban would help some coastal states at best temporarily, while the broader economic pressure campaign on Iran shows no sign of working.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 2 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
Rapidan priced a diesel export ban at 35% back in April, and thought that was already a high number
A ban would bring only temporary relief, and gasoline and jet fuel prices would still rise
He sees no hard evidence that economic pressure is changing Iran's position, even as the administration believes it is working
He expects the president to escalate after the midterms if no deal emerges from the UN General Assembly talks
1. The White House Flips
Asked whether he was surprised the White House now says it is "seriously" weighing a diesel export ban, Modell said his firm was tracking the odds of exactly this months ago.
The number his firm has carried since April
"Back in April we were looking at this. 35% odds we had that there was going to be an export ban, and we even thought that was high because from a very fundamental level we knew that Secretaries Blinken and Granholm ... have been against it from the start knowing that it would provide temporary relief at best." — Scott Modell
He said the White House's shift reflects the calendar more than a change in the underlying economics.
"When you run out of options, Carl, and as we got closer to the midterms, we flipped 'cause the president flipped." — Scott Modell
No numbers yet on the size of the hit
Asked whether Rapidan had modeled the effect on retail gasoline, Modell said the firm has no specific figures because the shape of any ban is still unclear — a full ban, partial bans, quotas and voluntary cuts have all been floated. Whatever the design, he said the direction is the same.
"It's definitely going going to go higher. ... On the coast, certainly in the coastal areas and the Gulf of Mexico, can't get much better. And in fact, gasoline's going to go higher, jet fuel's going to go higher." — Scott Modell
