Full Signal · Oct 6, 2026 · 33m · 19m saved
With Stephanie Guild, Chief Investment Officer at Robinhood Markets
Analysts expect earnings growth of 14% next year and about 15% the year after, Stephanie Guild said. She is not sure growth stays in double digits for three more years.
Most investors she meets answer any list of risks by pointing to strong earnings. Guild, who still prefers stocks to bonds, named those forecasts as what the market may have wrong a year from now.
"So I'm a little worried because earnings expectations are not low." — Stephanie Guild
Stephanie Guild, Chief Investment Officer at Robinhood Markets, on Full Signal, runs Robinhood Strategies, the company's managed portfolios, and has spent 21 years in financial services. The interview was taped before a live audience at Robinhood's HOOD Summit.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 33 minutes of audio, 14 minutes of reading.
Here are the 15 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
Volatility is low even with oil above $100 and diesel at a record, which Guild said she does not understand
Energy stocks have been the year's best hedge, and she would keep the allocation while rotating the names
Robinhood sold Exxon Mobil and bought EOG Resources
2027 earnings growth of 14% is half of 2026's, which she called more reasonable but still high against history
She is not buying bonds yet: corporate bond issuance of $3 trillion this year is more than the government's
Without AI spending, she thinks the US would have "a mediocre economy"
Eli Lilly could be worth several trillion dollars, said Guild, who owns it personally and calls it one of her favorite stocks
Defense stocks lagged this year, and she wonders whether that is an opening
Local opposition to data centers and AI agents going wrong are the two risks she sees to the AI build-out
1. Low Volatility Puzzles Her
The host opened by noting that stocks were at record highs heading into the midterms while bond yields were at 20-year highs.
"It's handling everything pretty well." — Stephanie Guild
Guild said low volatility is what she does not understand
The VIX, an index of expected stock market volatility, is very low. For a while, she said, a measure of single-stock volatility was high while the overall VIX was low, which made sense with so much going on beneath the surface. Now both are low, even with bond prices falling, oil above $100 that day and record diesel prices.
"Diesel prices are at all-time highs." — Stephanie Guild
A recent purchasing managers' survey showed manufacturers' input prices were very high while consumer prices had not caught up, she said, which raises the question of whether margins or future consumer prices give way.
