Standard Chartered Money Insights · Sep 28, 2026
With Jonathan Liang, Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income and FX, Standard Chartered Bank
The 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed roughly a full percentage point since the start of the year to just under 5.2% — and for the first time since that selloff began, Standard Chartered's fixed-income CIO says the level is actually worth buying.
Standard Chartered spent the first half of the year telling clients to stay short, recommending three-to-five-year duration while yields climbed. Liang says the math at the long end has now flipped.
"I believe that current levels are finally offering a compelling risk return profile." — Jonathan Liang
Liang runs fixed income and FX investment strategy for Standard Chartered's wealth business and has been publishing the bank's view on this bond selloff throughout the year.
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Here are the 2 takeaways that matter.
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Key Takeaways
Standard Chartered is extending its recommended Treasury duration from 3-5 years to 3-7 years as yields climb
Liang says the 10-year Treasury's risk-return has flipped positive for the first time this cycle, with a forecast range of 5-5.25%
1. The Math Behind the Trade
Liang said the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen about 40 basis points since the start of September and roughly a full percentage point since the start of the year, to just under 5.2% — a move he attributed to the Iran conflict, elevated oil prices, still-elevated inflation, a looming supply of high-grade debt, and a hawkish Fed.
Standard Chartered had recommended a 3-to-5-year duration range in the first half of the year as yields climbed, then extended that to 3-to-7 years as long-end yields kept rising. Liang said that range is still the right one for income-focused investors, in part because the 5-year Treasury now also yields more than 5% with less duration risk than the 10-year.
For investors willing to take on duration, though, Liang said the long end has finally reached a level worth buying.
"At roughly 5.2% yield to maturity, if someone had a one-year investment horizon, the 10-year bond yield would have to breach above 5.7% before investors start seeing a negative return." — Jonathan Liang
His base case puts the 10-year yield in a 5-5.25% range
If yields instead fall back toward 4.75% — where they sat a month earlier — he said the one-year total return on the position could land in the "low teens"
