Standard Chartered Money Insights · Oct 1, 2026
With Steve Brice, Global Chief Investment Officer, Standard Chartered Bank
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose more than 50 basis points in September — and Standard Chartered's global CIO says the move has kept going even as the news has turned supportive, not because the fundamentals are bad, but because positioning is unwinding.
Most investors read a bond selloff on good news as a signal yields have further to climb. Steve Brice reads the same move as a sign the selloff is close to exhausting itself.
"I believe now is the time to be greedy rather than fearful." — Steve Brice
Brice runs the global investment view for Standard Chartered's wealth business and had already put the bank behind a long 10-year government bond position before this episode.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 2 takeaways that matter.
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Key Takeaways
Standard Chartered is sticking with its long 10-year Treasury call, betting the bond selloff is forced selling, not a fundamental shift
Brice calls both bonds and equities a buying opportunity heading into year-end, as Q3 earnings season gets underway
1. A Bond Yield Doom Loop
Brice said the 10-year US government bond yield rose more than 50 basis points in September, extending a move Standard Chartered had already bet against with a long 10-year government bond position initiated earlier the same week.
Since then, two pieces of news should have pulled yields lower, and didn't:
Oil prices have fallen well off their highs after Saudi Arabia reopened its oil pipeline
The US PCE deflator — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — came in weaker than expected on both headline and core measures
Brice said that leaves two ways to read the move. Either bonds are selling off despite good news, which argues yields have further to rise — or markets are diverging from fundamentals, which argues this is a buying opportunity. He said both have some truth, but pointed to a third factor doing the real work.
"The Financial Times this morning is reporting that the rise in yields is creating some forced selling amongst hedge fund community and real estate investment trusts." — Steve Brice
Higher yields haven't yet drawn in enough new buyers to offset that forced selling, Brice said, but he expects that imbalance to flip once yields look attractive enough — and for the reversal to happen "quite swiftly" once it starts.
