Standard Chartered Money Insights Sep 25, 2026
With Manpreet Gill, Chief Investment Officer for Africa, the Middle East and Europe at Standard Chartered Bank
Standard Chartered's CIO office now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates twice more by the middle of 2027, and it is still overweight stocks against bonds and cash.
The worry in markets is that higher policy rates and bond yields will hurt stocks the way they did in 2022. Manpreet Gill said the better parallel is the 1990s, when central banks raised rates into strong earnings growth and stock markets kept gaining.
"We believe earnings here in these regions outweigh any drag from higher bond yields."
Manpreet Gill, Chief Investment Officer for Africa, the Middle East and Europe at Standard Chartered Bank, on Standard Chartered Money Insights. He sits on the bank's Group Investment Council, and he spoke the week the CIO office published its latest Global Market Outlook, titled "Earnings Above All."
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 5 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
Growth should outweigh $100 oil, as long as nominal prices stay out of the 120 to 150 range
Adjusted for inflation, oil is near its long-term average, not at past oil-shock levels
Two more Fed hikes expected by mid-2027, against three more from the Bank of Japan and one from the ECB
He sees the 1990s as the template, not 2022: rates rose into strong earnings, and stocks kept gaining
Pullbacks are chances to add, with the US and Asia ex-Japan still preferred
Chinese stocks cut to a core holding, and Taiwan now the only overweight in the region
Bonds of 3 to 7 years, with more credit risk and less exposure to very long maturities
The dollar should weaken again after the next 1 to 3 months, and gold should rise over 3 and 12 months
1. Earnings Outrun $100 Oil
The host opened by saying the CIO office had just released its latest Global Market Outlook, titled "Earnings Above All," which looks at higher oil prices, resilient economic growth and rising bond yields. She asked why earnings should still be the dominant factor for markets.
Oil is testing $100 a barrel again
Gill said there has been no progress toward a negotiated settlement in the US-Iran conflict, and fears persist that shipping restrictions could extend into the Bab el-Mandab Strait. Together those have oil prices once again testing $100 a barrel, and worries about the supply of refined products such as diesel and jet fuel have made the concerns worse.
Adjusted for inflation, the oil price is not at shock levels
He said the inflation-adjusted price, not the nominal price, is what matters.
"Because the inflation-adjusted oil price is actually closer to its long-term average levels rather than closer to historical oil shock levels." — Manpreet Gill
Combined with the global economy using less oil per unit of output than it did historically, that is why the CIO office expects to avoid some of the worst-case scenarios for growth and inflation, he said, as long as nominal oil prices do not move into the 120 to 150 per barrel range.
US growth has held up, helped by AI investment
"But balancing that of course despite all of these concerns around oil, I think it's worth pointing out that US economic growth data has actually held up remarkably well." — Manpreet Gill
He pointed to higher-frequency indicators such as the latest PMI and retail sales data, and said much of that resilience rests on growth in AI-related investment. He expects strong growth to dominate, which lets equity markets focus on earnings growth, with oil still a key risk to watch.
