China's temporary relief on antimony export restrictions to the US military sector expires November 27.
Most investors assume a critical-mineral shortage gets fixed once a government notices it. Rodney Stevens told ITM Trading it doesn't work that way for antimony — new mine supply takes roughly five years to bring online, whatever Beijing decides next.
"I think in November, we're going to hit another supply cliff... that can create another supply cliff, which sends the antimony skyrocketing again."
Rodney is CEO of NSJ Antimony Corp. (CSE: NSJ), which holds ground in the same geological package as Lake George, once North America's only primary antimony producer.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 20 minutes of audio, 6 minutes of reading.
Here are the 7 numbers that matter.
ITM TRADING, INC. · Oct 25, 2026 · 20m · 14m saved
With Rodney Stevens, CEO at NSJ Antimony Corp.
Key Takeaways
China's temporary export relief to the US military sector expires November 27, and Rodney expects that to trigger a second "supply cliff" like 2024's
The global supply deficit runs roughly 30,000 tons a year, and new mine supply takes about five years to come online regardless of policy
Military demand is inelastic — "when they need it, they just need it," price aside
Antimony has no LME-style public price — it trades privately, at a 50-100% premium outside China versus inside China
Reviving the historic, flooded Lake George mine isn't a shortcut — the ore body is largely depleted, so a restart requires drilling an entirely new deposit anyway
NSJ raised $4 million and is drilling 11 targets, with results expected within about a month
A single viable deposit here is small by base-metal standards — a $100 million build generating $50-100 million a year — but the national deficit needs roughly ten such mines
Backers include Delbrook Asset Management, a $5 billion fund, and Sprott
1. A Second Supply Cliff
Rodney traces today's antimony squeeze to a specific expiring deadline, not a vague shortage story.
China's military-sector export relief expires November 27
"I think in November, we're going to hit another supply cliff... that can create another supply cliff, which sends the antimony skyrocketing again." — Rodney Stevens
He ties this to what happened after China first restricted exports in 2024: antimony had spent seven or eight years in a bear market that discouraged any new supply investment, so the industry was caught flat-footed and has been "playing catch up" since.
A prior seven-to-eight-year bear market left no one investing in new supply
"Antimony has been in a bear market for the last seven or eight years... there's not much reinvestment in the sector and it goes unnoticed." — Rodney Stevens
He reads China's own motive as feeding its domestic smelters first — hungry smelters need feed, and restricting exports keeps that feed at home.
