The 10-year Treasury yield has run from about 4.175% to roughly 5.1% since Francis Hunt last spoke with VRIC Media in February — a roughly 25% rise he says most forecasters got wrong.
Most people who called a top in yields reasoned that a recession would cap them. Francis says the math runs the other way: higher rates raise interest costs, which cuts tax receipts, which forces more borrowing, which raises rates again.
"What we have in the West is a doom loop of higher rates leading to higher interest payments, that leads to reduced tax take, which leads to higher government borrowing."
Francis Hunt, known as "The Market Sniper," is a chartist and the founder of themarketsniper.com, where he has tracked sovereign debt and precious metals cycles for years.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 47 minutes of audio, 5 minutes of reading.
Here are the 6 calls that matter.
VRIC Media · Oct 25, 2026 · 47m · 42m saved
With Francis Hunt, Chartist and Founder at themarketsniper.com
Key Takeaways
The 10-year yield has run from 4.175% to roughly 5.1% since February, and Francis's target carries it through 6%
He says Treasury Secretary Bessent "doesn't even really control the supply" of bonds because deficits force continued issuance
The West is in a self-reinforcing debt "doom loop", with France's debt-per-capita among Europe's worst and its yields hitting new highs
China's deleveraging is "corrective," not a crisis, Francis says, contrasting it with the West's deepening leverage
He frames oil as a financial weapon, not just a commodity — today's tightness is "an orchestrated constriction," in his view, not a supply shortage
Francis and his team went long gold and silver again on October 21st, after stepping back from the trade earlier this year
He expects governments to lean on surprise inflation, self-monetization and financial repression — citing an IMF paper's three tools for managing over-indebted nations
1. A Yield Target Through 6%
Francis opened by checking his own forecast against what actually happened since his last appearance.
The 10-year has already run from 4.175% to roughly 5.1%, on its way to 6%
"We said to you that goes higher... you're now at 5.106. So not only did it go higher, you put an entire 100 points on that." — Francis Hunt
"The target that we've always forecast for this will take you through 6%." — Francis Hunt
He says Bessent has been "cycling back" from his own "I am the house" rhetoric because controlling bond supply doesn't mean controlling demand for it.
Deficits force issuance, whatever the Treasury Secretary says
"Bessent came out and said don't bet against the house, I am the house, and then subsequently said I don't control the bond market and the house doesn't win every hand." — Francis Hunt
"As long as you run deficits, he has to issue. So he doesn't even really control the supply." — Francis Hunt
