The Fed cut rates by 175bps from September 2024 to January 2026, and yields across the whole Treasury curve rose instead of falling.
Most investors read rate cuts as good news for bonds. Matthew Piepenburg, Partner at Von Greyerz, told VRIC Media the rise means the bond market now sets rates, and that the trade is to sell Treasuries and stocks and own gold.
"There's 115 trillion in government debt right now. That's a global debt crisis evidenced in a global bond crisis... which leads to a global currency crisis... which leads to an inflationary crisis, which leads to a social crisis."
Matthew is a partner at a Swiss firm that stores gold and silver for wealthy clients in vaults in Zurich and Singapore. Its founder, Egon von Greyerz, began buying gold at $300 an ounce in 2000.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 55 minutes of audio, 9 minutes of reading.
Here are the 10 calls that matter.
VRIC Media · Oct 24, 2026 · 55m · 46m saved
With Matthew Piepenburg, Partner at Von Greyerz
Key Takeaways
The Fed cut 175bps and yields rose across the curve, which Matthew read as the bond market setting rates
France must refinance €77B this year at higher yields, with debt at 120% of GDP
Broad money is up 45% in 6 years, so Matthew puts real inflation near 10% and real Treasury yields below zero
Long Treasuries have lost 90% against gold in 12 years, while stocks also lost value measured in gold
Matthew puts the odds of a US gold revaluation above 50%, from a statutory price of $42.22 an ounce
Sell long Treasuries and a stock market that has been a top for a long time
AI capital is overallocated to OpenAI and Anthropic, and recent IPO buyers end up as exit liquidity for insiders
1. Yields Are Shark Fins
Matthew opened on the bond market. Yields on government debt have climbed in the US, Japan and Europe at the same time.
Sovereign yields are at multi-decade highs in every major market
"Bond yields across the sovereign... yield issuers are decades high across the board, from Japan to America to Europe." — Matthew Piepenburg
Matthew tied the rise to falling demand for government debt in France, the US and Japan alike. He pointed to a recent Economist cover asking whether the bond market had blown up. To him, it showed mainstream media catching up to an argument the precious-metals community has made for years.
Rising yields are the warning sign for indebted nations
"I've always said for years [rising yields] are everything... they're like shark fins to broken, indebted nations." — Matthew Piepenburg
In his chain, a debt crisis becomes a bond crisis. The policy response, printing money, then becomes a currency crisis, an inflation crisis and finally a social crisis. Matthew cited the unrest in France as that last stage.
