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Treasuries upgraded, US stocks downgraded to manage AI risk — BlackRock strategist

12 calls: why a 5.5% 10-year still leaves bonds up 2–3% on the year, why PIMCO sees AI policy moving to the states, and what put Target up over 50%

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Oct 16, 2026
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Bloomberg Surveillance · Oct 15, 2026 · 49m · 37m saved

With Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock · David Katz, CIO of Matrix Asset Advisors · Dana Telsey, Founder and CEO of Telsey Advisory Group · Ross Mayfield, Investment Strategist at Baird Private Wealth · Winnie Cisar, Global Head of Strategy at CreditSights · Libby Cantrill, Managing Director, Public Policy at PIMCO

Treasuries upgraded, US stocks downgraded to manage AI risk — BlackRock strategist

BlackRock put out a note on Monday upgrading Treasuries at both the short and the long end and downgrading US equities. It closed an underweight to long-dated bonds the firm first took six years ago, when the 10-year yielded under 90 basis points.

Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock, explained the move on Bloomberg Surveillance in a week of hot inflation data. Most of the panel around her argued over which stocks to own. Wei's firm had just decided to own fewer of them, even with long-term yields still climbing.

"If the U.S. 10-year go from 5.3... to 5.5, actually the total return on the year is still going to be positive. You are still up 2%, 3% on the year." — Wei Li

Wei sets the market view behind calls like Monday's, and she spoke for it the same week it was published. She shared the episode with David Katz of Matrix Asset Advisors, Dana Telsey of Telsey Advisory Group, Ross Mayfield of Baird, Winnie Cisar of CreditSights and Libby Cantrill of PIMCO.

The full episode is covered here so you can skip it. 49 minutes of audio, 12 minutes of reading.

Here are the 12 calls that matter.


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Key Takeaways

  • BlackRock upgraded Treasuries and downgraded US equities on Monday

    • It ended an underweight to long-dated bonds that dated from a sub-90bps 10-year

  • A rise in the 10-year to 5.5% would still leave bondholders up 2–3% on the year, in Wei's math

  • The AI trade no longer lifts every stock, Baird's Ross Mayfield said

    • CoreWeave's bonds yield north of 15% while the Mag Seven hold up

  • Credit tied to hyperscalers is being repriced, but every deal has cleared

  • Midterm indicators sit where they did before the 2006 and 2010 waves, PIMCO's Libby Cantrill said

  • AI data-center policy is moving from Washington to the states

    • Many of the 36 governor candidates are running against data centers

  • Target is up more than 50% this year on new assortment and collaborations

1. Hot PPI, Ignore the Noise

Bloomberg's Alexis Christophorus opened with September producer prices. PPI rose 0.8% on the month against a 0.6% estimate, and 6.3% on the year against 5.4% expected. Core PPI rose 0.7% and 5%, both above estimates. Retail sales were up 0.8%, but the control group that feeds into GDP rose just 0.1%.

David Katz, CIO of Matrix Asset Advisors, was in the studio to promote his new book on long-term investing. His response to a frenzy of data is to not react to it.

David Katz's answer to a hot print is a long-term plan and low costs

"We think setting up a long-term plan, sticking to that plan, trying to keep costs low is the best way to increase wealth, not getting obsessed with the day-to-day volatility." — David Katz

He backed the point with the familiar gap between what a fund earns and what its investors keep. The difference is the cost of bad timing.

Investors keep 7% of a fund's 10% because they trade at the wrong times, by David's account

"If the average mutual fund makes 10%, the average investor in that fund makes 7%, that's because they're trading in and out at the wrong times." — David Katz

2. Utilities at 16x Earnings

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