Other People's Money with Max Wiethe · Oct 12, 2026 · 57m · 48m saved
With Charles Lemonides, CIO & Founder, ValueWorks LLC
Photo via Financial Planning
The S&P 500 has gone 18 years without a correction greater than 25%, says Charles Lemonides, CIO and founder of ValueWorks LLC.
Most investors treat that streak's age as a reason to call a top. Lemonides says the opposite is historically true: the best returns in a bull market come in its final stretch, and the speculative melt-up that usually precedes a real top hasn't happened yet this cycle.
"Bull markets have massive blowups to the upside before the downside happens, and I don't think we've seen that liftoff quite yet in this cycle." — Charles Lemonides
Charles has run ValueWorks since before Micron traded at $70 a share; the stock sits near $1,000 today and he still holds it. He told host Max Wiethe on Other People's Money that his own definition of value investing has nothing to do with cheap, low-margin stocks.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 57 minutes of audio, 9 minutes of reading.
Here are the 7 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
The S&P 500 hasn't had a correction greater than 25% in 18 years, and Lemonides doesn't think this cycle's speculative blow-off top has happened yet
His definition of value investing is "getting a dollar's worth of assets for 50 cents," not buying cheap stocks
By that measure, Micron still isn't expensive even after its run from $70 to $1,000
Intel is his next Micron: ValueWorks bought around $55 a share, added more near $45, and calls its improving chip yields the real foundry bottleneck
He's long Lyft and Instacart because he doesn't think ride-share or grocery delivery are winner-take-all businesses, even as Waymo expands
He's short Texas Pacific Land, arguing investors are paying for the same land, mineral rights and royalty income twice over
Casey's General Stores and Weis Markets trade at 35 to 40 times earnings, he says, while LVMH and Hermès sit at multi-year low multiples
Honeywell's stake in Quantinuum gives him quantum-computing upside "for nothing," he says
1. Late-Cycle, Not Over
Host Max Wiethe opens on valuation: S&P 500 forward earnings near 18 times, elevated but not as extreme as prior bubbles. Lemonides agrees the market is fully valued without being obviously overvalued.
The market is "an awful lot more fully valued than it once was"
"This market has gone up and to the right without a more than a 25% correction for 18 years." — Charles Lemonides
He calls it "sort of silly" to think the cycle ends in exactly 18 years and two weeks rather than 18.5, 19, or 22, and notes that recent gains have come with earnings growth outrunning price gains rather than multiple expansion — a sign, he says, that the cycle can keep extending as long as growth doesn't meaningfully slow. On rising long-end bond yields, he rejects the "debasement trade" story some commentators favor, attributing higher yields instead to strong growth outpacing the Fed's ability to cool it.
"The market is not necessarily overvalued, but it is an awful lot more fully valued than it once was." — Charles Lemonides
He floats a scenario where a slowdown in AI investment lets the Fed cut rates, reviving dormant sectors like residential construction and office space that have seen almost no new building in years.
