Bloomberg Surveillance · Oct 2, 2026 · 18m · 13m saved
With Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management
Seema Shah told Bloomberg Surveillance she expected a "boring" 65,000 reading on the September jobs report. The actual print, which crossed the screen later in the same broadcast, was 29,000.
Most strategists hedge a jobs-day call with a wide range. Shah gave a specific number, a specific wage-growth rate and a specific unemployment rate, then spent the rest of the segment explaining what she would do with client money if she turned out to be wrong.
"We're expecting a pretty boring report, but boring is exactly what the market wants."
Seema Shah is Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, the roughly $700 billion manager's house view on markets, economics and the Federal Reserve.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it. 18 minutes of audio, 5 minutes of reading.
Here are the 5 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
Her base case was a 65,000 payroll print; the actual number came in at 29,000
She also called for 0.3% wage growth and 4.1% unemployment
The economy is "strong," not "strengthening," and that distinction is what the Fed is trying to price
Consumer resilience and AI investment are holding growth up; affordability and borrowing costs are starting to bite
A weak jobs report would be good news for stocks, she said, because it keeps the Fed patient
She also flagged early, small signs of stress building in credit markets
She will not try to call the top on bond yields or times the dollar's peak — "a false game"
High-yield spreads widened more than 50 basis points over eight sessions, which she called a "digestion issue," not a sign fundamentals are breaking
1. The Fed's Jobs-Day Test
Jonathan Ferro opened by asking Shah for her base case ahead of the 8:30 a.m. Eastern release.
Her forecast was precise: 65,000 jobs, 0.3% wage growth, 4.1% unemployment
"We're expecting about a 65K number." — Seema Shah
"We're expecting wage growth to stay pretty stable at about 0.3% and unemployment to stay at 4.1%." — Seema Shah
She said a quiet number was the best outcome available.
"We're expecting a pretty boring report, but boring is exactly what the market wants." — Seema Shah
