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Volatility

Kai Volatility founder: a meaningful crisis will be allowed to happen before June 2027
12 calls: why Washington's plan is "print money, buy stocks," how a $300T equity market became too big to fail, and the 4 building blocks he says…
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Resource capex is down 75% after inflation since 2014, Marathon Resource Advisors finds
9 calls: why a short book adds 35 points, why UK North Sea producers yield 15%, why the copper majors are a short, and what gold needs from central…
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89% of S&P 500 stocks have had a 10% drop since June 1, CNBC's Investment Committee finds
8 arguments: why rate-sensitive stocks stay down through earnings, a stock market ignoring bond volatility, whether AI drives the energy rally, and…
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"Daily leverage resets do not cause volatility drag": PWL Capital's CIO on leveraged ETFs
13 lessons: why a 2x fund launched in 1994 trailed the S&P 500 for decades, how 2x ETFs can cost over 5% a year, and why single-stock versions are…
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Nassim Taleb: buying AI-linked stocks is probably the most naive thinking there is
3 arguments: Why he calls the stock market a trap that keeps rising while risk builds, and why Apple and IBM both nearly went out of business after…
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North Star Asset Management CIO: the AI trade is hiding the damage from higher yields
5 calls: why she says the era of low rates is over, why the equal-weight S&P 500 is down 3.5% to 4%, and why earnings outside AI have to keep speeding…
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62.5bps of Fed hikes priced for 2026 inverted the curve, Quadratic Capital's CIO finds
6 calls: Why the jump in rate volatility was the biggest since COVID and SVB, how her IVOL fund finally paid off, and why she says the market sees a Fed…
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100% of the S&P's 2026 return is earnings growth, says Franklin Templeton's strategist
12 takeaways: The multiple fell while the index rose, the central-bank ratio he says leads earnings by 14 months, and why the man who called the…
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"I said the 10-year note is the risk asset": Macro Risk Advisors CEO on hedging
12 insights: A 40-point gap between single-stock and index volatility, $860B of new federal debt in 4 months, and the hedge he wants left on until…
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Michael Youngworth: a third of the convertible market is now an AI trade
7 arguments: The 11% drawdown converts took while BofA's AI baskets fell 30–40%, why volatility makes the embedded option worth more, and why the entry…
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Peter Hecht: AQR manages $242B and is right about a stock only 55% of the time
17 takeaways: Why the small-cap paper had its signs backward, how AQR uses AI without converging with rivals, and the credential lesson he learned too…
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Carter Worth: nothing explains Caterpillar's $800 to $1,050 round trip but money flow
11 takeaways: The five winners he says are rolling over, why the semiconductor unwind is not over, the one sector he would own more of, and the trade…
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